Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO2 emissions is strongly linked to the future energy production, specifically coal. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. This study examines the SRES coal production outlooks. Fundamental assumptions regarding coal availability and production in SRES was also compared with recent studies on reasonable future production outlooks. It was found that SRES puts unreasonable expectation on just a few countries. Is it reasonable to expect that China, already accounting for 46% of the global output, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain SRES scenarios? It is concluded that SRES is underpinned by a paradigm of perpetual growth and technological optimism as well as old and outdated resource estimates. This has resulted in overoptimistic production outlooks.
AyresR.U., 2006. Turning point: The end of exponential growth?Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73(9), 1188–1203.
2.
BartlettA.A., 1993. Arithmetic of growth: Methods of calculation. Population and Environment, 14(4), 359–387.
3.
BartlettA.A., 1999. Arithmetic of growth: Methods of calculation II. Population and Environment, 20(3), 215–246.
4.
BartlettA.A., 2004. The essential exponential! For the future of our planet. Center for Science, Mathematics and Computer Education, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 302 p.
5.
BezdekR.H.WendlingR.M., 2002. A half century of long-range energy forecasts: Errors made, lessons learned, and implications for forecasting. Journal of Fusion Energy, 212(3–4), 155–172.
6.
BGR, 2009. Reserves, resources and availability of energy resources 2009 and previous reports. See also: http://www.bgr.bund.de/
7.
BP, 2010. BP statistical review of world energy 2010. See also: http://www.bp.com
8.
BrechaR.J., 2008. Emission scenarios in the face of fossil-fuel peaking. Energy Policy, 36(9), 3492–3504.
9.
Energywatch Group, 2007. Coal: Resources and future production. Report from March 2007. See also: http://www.energywatchgroup.org/
10.
FloresR.M.StrickerG.D.KinneyS.A., 2004. Alaska Coal Geology, Resources, and Coalbed Methane Potential. See also: http://pubs.usgs.gov/dds/dds-077/
11.
GirodB.WiekA.MiegH.HulmeM., 2009. The evolution of the IPCC's emissions scenarios. Environmental Science and Policy, 12(2), 103–118.
12.
GrayV., 1998. The IPCC future projections: Are they plausible?Climate Research, 10(2), 155–162.
13.
GregoryK.RognerH.H., 1998. Energy resources and conversion technologies for the 21st century. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 3(2–4), 171–229.
14.
HjerpeMLinnérB.O., 2008. Utopian and dystopian thought in climate change science and policy. Futures, 41(4), 234–245.
15.
HöökM.AleklettK., 2009. Historical trends in American coal production and a possible future outlook. International Journal of Coal Geology, 78(3), 201–216.
16.
HöökM.AleklettK., 2010a. Trends in U.S. recoverable coal supply estimates and future production outlooks. Natural Resources Research, 19(3), 189–208.
17.
HöökM.AleklettK., 2010b. A review on coal to liquid fuels and its coal consumption. International Journal of Energy Research, 34(10), 848–864.
18.
HöökM.SivertssonA.AleklettK., 2010a. Validity of the fossil fuel production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios. Natural Resources Research, 19(2), 63–81.
19.
HöökM.ZittelW.SchindlerJ.AleklettK., 2010b. Global coal production outlooks based on a logistic model. Fuel, 89(11), 3546–3558.
JenkinsG, 1989. Oil economists' handbook. Taylor & Francis Group, London, 484 p.
28.
JonesR.N., 2001. An environmental risk assessment/management framework for climate change impact assessments. Natural Hazards, 23(2–3), 197–230.
29.
KharechaP.A.HansenJ.E., 2008. Implications of “peak oil” for atmospheric CO2 and climate. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 22(3).
30.
LinB.Q.LiuJ.H., 2010. Estimating coal production peak and trends of coal imports in China. Energy Policy, 38(1), 512–519.
31.
LivernoisJ.R., 1988. Estimates of marginal discovery costs for oil and gas. Canadian Journal of Economics, 21, 379–393.
32.
MitchellB., 2003. International historical statistics 1750–2000. Palgrave MacMillan, London, 2580 p.
33.
MohrS.H.EvansG.M., 2009. Forecasting coal production until 2100. Fuel, 88(11), 2059–2067.
34.
NelW.P.CooperC.J., 2009. Implications of fossil fuel constraints on economic growth and global warming. Energy Policy, 37(1), 166–180.
35.
PatzekT.D.CroftG.D., 2010. A global coal production forecast with multi-Hubbert cycle analysis. Energy, 35(8), 3109–3122.
36.
QuirkD.G.RuthrauffR., 2006. Analysis of reserves discovered in petroleum exploration. Journal of Petroleum Geology, 29(2), 125–146.
37.
RodríguezX.A.AriasC., 2008. The effects of resource depletion on coal mining productivity. Energy Economics, 30(2), 397–408.
38.
RognerH.H., 1997. An assessment of world hydrocarbon resources. Annual Review of Energy and the Environment, 22, 217–262.
39.
RottyR.M., 1979. Growth in global energy demand and contribution of alternative supply systems. Energy, 4(5), 881–890.
40.
RutledgeD., 2007. Hubbert's Peak, the Coal Question, and Climate Change. Presentation at the ASPO-USA World Oil Conference, 17–20 October 2007, Houston, Texas, see also: http://rutledge.caltech.edu/
41.
RutledgeD., 2011. Estimating long-term world coal production with logit and probit transforms. International Journal of Coal Geology, 85(11), 23–33.
42.
SchenkN.J.LensinkS.M., 2007. Communicating uncertainty in the IPCC's greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Climatic Change, 82(1–2), 293–308.
43.
SchneiderS, 2001. What is dangerous climate change?Nature, 411, 17–19.
44.
SchneiderS, 2002. Can we estimate the likelihood of climatic changes at 2100?Climatic Change, 52(4), 441–451.
