Abstract
Perhaps through a momentum effect, many OECD countries, especially the EU27 group, continue to have official government policies and accompanying measures, including sometimes large subsidies for the mitigation or “fight” against climate change. However, since the failure of the Dec 2009 Copenhagen climate conference, and the sovereign debt crisis necessitating large cuts in government spending, this “fight” is less often communicated as being critical to human survival. The linked theme, and policy area of energy transition away from fossil fuels has also become less emphasised, perhaps because global warming is now seen as “last year's crisis”, and perhaps because oil prices are thought to be manageable, at midyear 2010 price levels. Underlying both themes, a very large range of data, theories and modeling or scenario building are in play. This article selects and briefly examines certain key themes in play, in particular the question of renewable and non-renewable resources, and their exploitation or stewardship.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Defining
“sustainability” is very difficult . For a well referenced discussion: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainability.
3.Fossil energy resource depletion and market pricing is central to this article . Concerning natural gas supply and pricing see for example: http://www.halliburton.com/public/solutions/contents/Shale/related_docs/H063771.pdf http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/the-coming-natural-gas-boom-is-not-all-its-fracced-up-to-be/19227642/ For uranium supply and resource depletion issues: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5060
5.
See for example:
Tao
Zaipu
and
Li
Mingyu
, ‘What is the limit of Chinese coal supplies— A STELLA model of Hubbert Peak’ . Energy Policy , Volume 35 , Issue 6 , June 2007 See also: http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Report_Coal_10-07-2007ms.pdf
6.
The “bounce” of coal prices can be attributed to special factors including infrastructure constraints, renewed Chinese import demand, recovery of the iron & steel industry, etc. See for example: oid=480644&sn=2009+Detail&pid=296405 The price recovery follows a sharp fall in H1 2009: http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Coal-prices-may-fall-but-not-coal-stocks-17707-3-1.html
9.
Coal price ref: http://paguntaka.org/2008/04/16/coal-prices-rebound-in-asia-market-and-tradding/ Oil price ref: http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-181451519.html Uranium price ref: http://www.uranium-stocks.net/uranium-price-predictions/
10.
Today's “oil shocks” are described by many economists as a non-problem. See: http://www.oxfordenergy.org/pdfs/WPM35.pdf The question of whether, or not the 1970s oil shocks were the root cause of high inflation at the time, can also be challenged. See for example http://www2.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/wpol/schumpeter/pdf/Martin_Ellison.pdf
20.Bjorn Lomborg, among others particularly underlines forecasting errors in the 1972 version of 'Limits to Growth’ , with radical extensions of his rejection of “depletionist” theses: http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/articles/Spring02/NoLimits.html
21.
As noted in my article there are possible complete polar opposite viewpoints, on the question of growth or “de-growth”. See for example: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_growth http://www.cetri.be/spip.php?article1419 http://www.thebrokeronline.eu/en/Online-discussions/Blogs/Global-green-economics/Tuning-into-degrowth
24.
Resource limits and oil depletion can be integrated into analysis and policy setting of many apparently unrelated sectors, for example financial and currency stability, or health care: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=a60APVwmz01g http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17456.html3 http://www.publichealthjrnl.com/article/S0033-3506(08)00096-6/abstract
25.
The theme of creative destruction is applied by many “expansionists” as vector for attaining new states and conditions of mankind. Leading thinkers include Raymond Kurzweil http://www.singularity.com/
26.
See for example: ‘The Oil Intensity of Economic Output’ ,
Barrell
R
Kirby
S.
Liadze
I
, National Institute Economic Review , N° 205, 2008 ; and: http://www.un.org/esa/policy/link/presentationsfall04/sjohnson_fall04.pdf http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2005/08/more_to_the_sto.html
32.
The question of resource rent partition is complex and notably includes the role of Sovereign wealth funds, parly nationalizing large natural resource rents. See for example: http://www.earthrights.net/docs/oilrent.html http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/nft/2003/fispol/index.htm The liberal critique includes the concept of “Dutch disease” from overtaxing resource rents. See eg: http://www3.hi.is/∼gylfason/Dutch%20Disease%20Palgravex.pdf
34.
39.
1 ton of bioethanol fuel (98% ethanol) is energy equivalent to about 0.65 tons oil http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tonne_of_oil_equivalent
42.
See reference 41 and: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power
48.
See references 34, 45, 46 and for example: http://www.oilgae.com/ http://www.biofuels-summit.com/
49.
Improved national security from renewable energy is often advanced as a major advantage. See for example: http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2010/02/energy-diversification-a-national-security-imperative http://www.americanenergyindependence.com/security.aspx
51.
Some factions of the Ludwig van Mises “school” or tendency claim that climate change extremists are “sabotaging the economy”. See for example: http://wichitaliberty.org/environment/not-evil-just-wrong-powerful-refutation-al-gore-environmental-extremism/ See also: http://mises.org/humanaction/chap16sec9.asp http://mises.org/daily/3886
53.
Comparison of published reserve estimates shows large or extreme variations. Explanations of these discrepancies range widely, from oil industry rivalry and tax exposure, and technical factors to colonial era relations and policies. See for example: http://middleeast.about.com/od/oilenergy/a/me080207d.htm http://www.lilith-ezine.com/articles/politics/Two-Hundred-Dollar-Oil.html http://en.rian.ru/business/20100131/157730220.html
54.
As noted in the article, the exact opposite argument – of systematically overestimated oil reserves – is easier to back up. See for example: http://www.arlingtoninstitute.org/wbp/peak-oil/161 http://theburningplatform.com/blog/2010/03/31/oil-reserves-overstated-by-33/ http://planetforlife.com/oilcrisis/oilreserves.html
55.
Definitions of resource rent: http://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID=2332 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_rent
56.
58.
Data for EU27 countries shows most countries already heavily tax motor fuels and may have biased carbon fiscal concepts. See for example: http://whatmatters.mckinseydigital.com/the_debate_zone/carbon-tax-vs-cap-and-trade http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=keep-oil-prices-high http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,556367,00.html
59.
So-called “after oil strategy” for exporter countries includes several elements. See for example:http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/med/2003/eng/fasano/index.htm
64.
Acting as a kind of barometer of public anguish at oil price rises, the “abiotic theory” is occasionally recycled by “expansionists”: http://www.physorg.com/news167835116.html http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/100404_abiotic_oil.shtml One of Saturn's moons, Titan, may also provide hope to “expansionists”: http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2008/02/titans-organic/
65.
See for example: http://www.desertec.org/downloads/GCREADER.pdf http://www.censolar.es/erec2040.pdf http://130.226.56.153/rispubl/presentations/Eisenbeiss.pdf We can note that as recently as 2000-2003, near total replacement of fossil fuels by the “Hydrogen Economy”, by about 2040, was presented as technologically and economically feasible. See eg.: http://www.wfeo.org/documents/download/annespresenation.pdf
67.
Many non-energy objectives or strategies are incorporated in national “energy transition” policies and programmes. See for example: http://www.the-get.com/ http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content∼content=a787448206&db=all
68.
See for example: http://iseof.org/pdf/theoildrum_5544.pdf
71.
Future gas supply for EU27 countries is impacted by the “Iran nuclear affair” with strong dependence of Iran on Russian nuclear technology, and the fact that with Qatar, Iran and Russia have two of the largest national reserves of gas in the world. See for example: http://www1.american.edu/TED/irannuke.htm See also: http://blogs.euobserver.com/petersen/2010/01/07/nabucco-supplies-to-iran-russia/ http://www.insideiran.org/critical-comments/europe-supports-sanctioning-iran-while-staking-hopes-on-tehran's-energy-supply/
73.
See for example: http://www.evworld.com/article.cfm?storyid=1751