Abstract
Current practice in the oil and gas industry uses average monthly production forecasting estimates to represent daily production in the scheduling of export tankers. This practice ignores the extreme lows and highs of the daily production estimates. This paper introduces a model that can be practically used and applied in the scheduling of export tankers. A stochastic approach to capture uncertainty in production forecasting is suggested, which is more realistic than using average estimates. An export tanker problem is investigated to show the impact of using average estimates. In this example, results show that there is a 45% chance that demurrage, penalty fees, will occur compared to zero chance when average estimates are used. The added value of this paper is that it shows realistic demurrage can be forecasted and anticipated by the use of uncertainty and stochastic approach than on using average estimates.