Abstract
This paper considers the capability of a sand, cut by a fault, to capture hydrocarbons supplied from below along a fault. The volume supplied, the capacity of each part of the sand, and the fractions of volume supplied that could be diverted to each sand, are all significant influences on the amounts of hydrocarbons that could be captured. Simple deterministic examples are given to illustrate the patterns of response that ensue when individual parameters are varied, including the amount of hydrocarbons lost from the system. In addition, when all of the parameters can be uncertain, as is most usually the situation when undertaking hydrocarbon exploration estimates of possible reserves, Monte Carlo calculations are used to show which of the uncertain parameters is causing the largest fraction of uncertainty on the fill and loss amounts from the system. In this way one can determine where to expend effort to narrow down the range of uncertainty of the parameters causing the dominant contributions to fill and loss uncertainty, with out having to spend inordinate amounts of time and effort in attempts to determine parameter ranges better for those parameters that hardly influence the uncertainty on hydrocarbon fill and loss.