Abstract
Natural gas provides 21% of the primary energy supply of Europe. According to EU predictions, this share will increase to approximately 28% in 2020 and dependence on natural gas imports will increase. The question arises how the increasing demand for gas can be assured? This will be analysed in this paper focussing on the resource base, technical viability, as well as contract security. As far as the resource base for natural gas is concerned, Western Europe's situation is quite favourable. Despite little resources of its own, Western Europe is surrounded by countries and regions with high gas potential (Russia, North Africa, the Caspian region and the Middle East). In addition to a sufficient resource base, production and transport play an important role, especially if there are long distances between producer and consumer countries. Transport costs are a decisive factor, due to the lower energy density of natural gas than that of oil and coal, which limits the distance for transport of gas. Therefore, natural gas markets are mainly regional. Only large gas fields (especially supergiants) are suitable for natural gas supply over long distances despite high infrastructure costs. An extensive pipeline network exists for the gas supply in Europe. This network has to be expanded in the future, however. The price of natural gas is coupled to the price of crude oil. Sizeable fluctuations in the oil price are a factor of uncertainty for capital investment decisions. In order to secure the future gas supply and to take advantage of this environmentally friendly energy source in competition with other primary fuels, all cost-reducing measures must be taken. Political measures must be taken to safeguard the very long-term capital investments.