The prospects for the longer-term evolution of aircraft and their propulsion systems are explored, taking a fifty year time-frame. It is considered that the most likely global scenario features continued economic development, aided by the introduction of fuel from alternative sources to offset a progressive shortfall in the availability of oil from relatively accessible fields. Pollution and other environmental problems are foreseen as exerting an increasing influence on decision making.
Assuming such a scenario, the aviation fuel prospect is considered. It is concluded that the most likely alternative fuel for aviation in the next fifty years is some form of manufactured liquid hydrocarbon resembling current aviation kerosine, rather than liquid hydrogen, which is a candidate for later introduction. An assessment is offered of the classes of flight vehicle that will be required for civil and military purposes in the time-frame under review. The implications with regard to propulsion systems are then considered, with a discussion of design objectives, technological challenges and research requirements.
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