When a serious failure situation has developed, an expensive crash programme is usually required. If in-service data are analysed as a routine, then impending trouble may be foreseen and management decisions made to minimize the cost. A reliability analysis can help to establish a failure pattern compatible with intuitive engineering assessment so that, from a realistic prediction, alternative courses of action can be considered.
A recent gas-turbine engine problem which has caused six component failures is analysed, and alternative replacement strategies are considered. It is suggested that to adopt the intuitive compromise strategy could be the most expensive in this case.
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