In a modern product development process such as in the automotive and aerospace sectors, extensive analytical and simulation approaches often are used to assess the ability of a design in fulfilling its requirements. Consideration of uncertainty in such situations is critical in ensuring a reliable design is produced. Probabilistic methods facilitate an improved understanding of design performance through characterization of uncertainty in the design parameters. The probabilistic methods developed over the past several decades have a range of capabilities and modes of application, for example, to predict reliability, for optimization, and to perform sensitivity studies, but have yet to be taken up routinely by industry due to a number of reasons. In this paper, issues that have typically inhibited their use or prevented a successful outcome are addressed through a systematic framework for improved utility and successful application of probabilistic designing for mechanical reliability.
CroweDFeinbergA (Eds.) Design for reliability (Lowell, Massachusetts: CRC Press2001)
2.
SmithD. JReliability, Maintainability and risk: practical methods for engineers; (Oxford, UK: Butterworth-Heinemann1993)
3.
RihaD. SThackerB. HEnrightM. PHuyseLFitchS. H. K.‘Recent advances of the NESSUS probabilistic analysis software for engineering applications’. In Proceedings of the 43rd AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics, and Materials (SDM) Conference, Denver, Colorado, 22–25 April 2002, paper no. AIAA-2002–1268 (AIAA, Denver, Colorado).
4.
GohY. MBookerJ. DMcMahonC. A‘A comparison of methods in probabilistic design based on computational and modelling issues’. In Proceedings of 5th International Conference on Integrated Design and Manufacturing in Mechanical Engineering (IDMME'04), Bath, UK, 5–7 April 2004, paper no. 155 Kluwer-Academic Publishers, Bath UK.
5.
BookerJ. DRainesMSwiftK. GDesigning Capable and Reliable Products (Oxford, UK: Butterworth-Heinemann2001)
6.
MavrisD. NMacsotaiN. IRothB. A‘A probabilistic design methodology for commercial aircraft engine cycle selection’. In Proceedings of the 1998 World aviation congress and exposition, Anaheim, California, 28–30 September 1998, paper no. SAE-985510 (SAE, California, USA).
7.
RihaR. JThackerB. HHallD. AAuelT. RPritchardS. D‘Capabilities and applications of probabilistic methods in finite element analysis’. The Fifth ISSAT International Conference on Reliability and Quality in Design, Las Vegas, Nevada, 11–13 August 1999.
8.
ThackerB. HRodriguezE. APepinJ. ERihaD. S‘Application of probabilistic methods to weapon reliability assessment’. In Proceedings of the 42nd AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics, and Materials (SDM) Conference, Seattle, Washington, 16–19 April 2001, paper no. AIAA 2001–1458 (AIAA, Washington, USA).
9.
AyyubB. M.De SouzaG. F. M.‘Reliability-based methodology for life prediction of ship structures’. Ship Structure Symposium, Arlington, Virginia, 13–14 June 2000.
10.
FaragherJ.‘The implementation of probabilistic methods for uncertainty analysis in computational fluid dynamics simulations of fluid flow and heat transfer in a gas turbine engine’ Report DSTO-TR-1830, Air Vehicles Division, Defence Science and Technology Organisation, Australia, 2006.
11.
SchenkC. ASchuëllerG. I‘Buckling analysis of cylindrical shells with random geometric imperfections’Int. J. Non-Linear Mech.38 (2003): 1119–1132
12.
GohY. MBookerJ. DMcMahonC. A‘Uncertainty modelling of a suspension unit’Proc. IMechE, Part D: J. Automobile Engineering219 (6) (2005): 755–771 DOI: 10.1243/095440705X28321.
Society of Automotive Engineers. Integration of probabilistic methods into the design process, Report No. AIR5080, Society of Automotive Engineers, Pennsylvania, USA, 1997.
16.
CrosslandR.McMahonC. ASims-WilliamsJ‘Survey of current UK practice in managing technical design risk’. In Proceedings of International Conference on Engineering Design ICED'01, Glasgow, 21–23 August 2001 (Professional Engineering Publishing, Bury St Edmunds and London).
17.
MoensD.VandepitteD‘Non-probabilistic approaches for non-deterministic dynamic FE analysis of imprecisely defined structures’. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Noise and vibration engineering (ISMA), Leuven, Belgium, 20–22 September 2004 (K U Leuven, Leuven, Belgium).
18.
BedfordT.QuigleyJWallsL‘Expert elicitation for reliable system design’Stat. Sci.21 (4) (2006): 428–450
GiachettiR. EYoungR. ERoggatzAEversheimWPerroneG‘A methodology for the reduction of imprecision in the engineering process’Eur. J. Oper. Res.100 (2) (1997): 277–292
21.
HansonK. M‘A framework for assessing uncertainties in simulation predictions’Physica D: Nonline. Phenom.133 (1–4) (1999): 179–188
22.
ZhuT. L‘A reliability based safety factor for aircraft composite structures’Comput. Struct.48 (4) (1993): 745–748
23.
FajdigaM.JurejevcicTKerncJ‘Reliability prediction in early phases of product design’J. Engng. Desi.7 (2) (1996): 107–128
24.
ShigleyJ. EMischkeC. RMechanical Engineering Design (New York: McGraw-Hill1989)
25.
AnderssonP. A‘Process approach to robust design in early engineering design phases’. PhD Thesis, Department of Machine Design, Lund Institute of Technology, 1996.
26.
CarterA. D. C.Mechanical reliability and design (London: Macmillan1997)
27.
BOMEL Ltd, Probabilistic methods: uses and abuses in structural integrity, Health and Safety Executive contract research report, 398/2001, 2001.
28.
International Organisation for Standardization. Industrial automation systems and integration – product data representation and exchange – Part 239: application protocol: product life cycle support, 2005.
29.
HaugenE. B‘Probabilistic mechanical design’ (1980) (Wiley-Interscience, New York).
30.
TataM.ThorntonA‘Process capability database usage in industry: myth vs. reality’. In proceedings of ASME Design Engineering Technical Conferences (DETC'99), Las Vegas, Nevada, 12–15 September 1999 paper number DEC99/DFM-8968 (ASME).
SargentR. G‘Verification and validation of simulation models’. In Proceedings of the 30th Winter simulation conference, Washington, District of Columbia, 13–16 December 1998, pp. 121–130, (IEE Computer Society Press).
33.
RobinsonS.‘Simulation model verification and validation: increasing the users’ confidence’. In Proceedings of the 1997 winter simulation conference, Atlanta, Georgia, 7–10 December 1997, pp. 53–59 (IEEE Computer Society Press).
34.
ZioE.ApostolakisG. E‘Two methods for the structured assessment of model uncertainty by experts in performance assessments of radioactive waste repositories’Reliab. Engng Syst. Saf.54 (1996): 225–241
35.
NilsenT.AvenT‘Models and model uncertainty in the context of risk analysis’Reliab. Engng Syst. Saf.79 (2003): 309–317
36.
RiegF.KochF‘Selection of finite elements considering loadcases and geometry’. In Proceedings of International Conference on Engineering Design (ICED'01), Glasgow, UK, 21–23 August, 2001 (Professional Engineering Publishing, Bury St Edmunds and London).
37.
GohY. MMcMahonC. ABookerJ. D‘Improving confidence in simulation-based design through error functions’. In Proceedings of ASME 2007 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference (ASME IDETC/CIE 2007), Las Vegas, Nevada, 4–7 September, 2007, paper number DETC2007–34435 (ASME).
38.
LongM. W.NarcisoJ. D., Probabilistic design methodology for composite aircraft structures, US Department of Transportation report DOT/FAA/AR-99/2, and the Federal Aviation Administration Springfield, Virginia, 1999.
39.
CraneyT.‘Probabilistic engineering design. reliability review’R and M Engng J.23 (2) (2003): 5–8
40.
DitlevsenO.‘Structural reliability codes for probabilistic design’Struct. Saf.19 (3) (1997): 253–270
41.
HaimesY. Y‘Risk analysis of fracture and failure’Mater. Res. Innov.2 (1998): 16–21
42.
LoughK. GStoneRTumerY‘The risk in early design method’J. Engng Des.20 (2) (2009): 155–173
43.
DieterG. EEngineering design: a materials and processing approach (New York: McGraw-Hill2000)
44.
NASA. Risk management procedures and guidelines. Report NPG 8000.4, 2002.
45.
NASA. Probabilistic risk assessment procedures guide for NASA managers and practitioners, Version 1.1, 2002.
46.
ArajouC. SBenedetto-NetoHCampelloA. CSegreF. MWrightI. C‘The utilisation of product development methods: a survey of UK industry’J. Engng Des.7 (3) (1996): 265–278
47.
DarlingtonJ.BookerJ. D‘Designing for fatigue resistance: survey of UK industry and future research agenda’. In Proceedings of IDMME'04, Bath, UK, 5–7 April, 2004, paper no. 121.
48.
BiedaJ.HolbrookM‘Reliability prediction, the right way’Reliab. Rev.11 (1991): 8 paper 25584–002
49.
BurnsR. J‘Reliability: is it worth the effort? - an assessment of the value of reliability tasks and techniques’Microelectron. Reliab.34 (11) (1994): 1795–1805
50.
KlitP.JensenFEllevangP‘Reliable design methodology – the use and misuse of reliability data in the design process’. In Proceedings of International Conference on Engineering Design (ICED'93), The Hague, 17–19 August, 1993, pp. 1156–1164 (Professional Engineering Publishing, Bury St Edmunds and London).
51.
FragolaJ. R‘Reliability and risk analysis data base development: an historical perspective’Reliab. Engng Sys. Saf.51 (2) (1996): 125–136
52.
GiessM.GohY. MDingLMcMahonC. A‘Improved product, process and rationale representation and information organisation to support design learning’. In Proceedings of International Conference on Engineering Design (ICED'07), Paris, France, 28–31 August, 2007.
53.
De WeckOEckertC. MClarksonP. J‘A classification of uncertainty for early product and system design’. In Proceedings of ICED'07, Paris, France, 28–31 August, 2007.
54.
BurgessS. CBookerJ. DBarrGAlemzadehK‘An investigation into engineering graduates’ understanding of probability theory’Int. J. Engng Educ.21 (3) (2005): 512–524
WojtkiewiczS. FEldredM. SFieldJ. RUrbinaARed-HorseJ. R‘A toolkit for uncertainty quantification in large computational engineering models’ In Proceedings of the 42nd AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics, and Materials (SDM) Conference, Seattle, Washington, 16–19 April, 2001, paper no. AIAA-2001–1455 (AIAA).
64.
PlaskittR. JMusiolC. J‘Developing a durable product’. In Proceedings of the Agricultural equipment technology Conference, Kansas City, Kansas, 20–23 February 2002, pp. 1–24 (American Society of Agricultural Engineers, Michigan, USA).
