Defying Intuition: Demonstrating the Importance of the Empirical Technique

Abstract

A simple stay—switch probability game demonstrates the importance of empirically testing our beliefs. Based on intuition, most undergraduate subjects believe that a stay strategy leads to a higher percentage of winning, and most faculty subjects believe that the staying and switching strategies yield equal probabilities of winning. However, a simple in-class experiment proves that switching wins twice as often as staying. Rather than teaching specific probability principles, this demonstration emphasizes reliance on empirically validating our beliefs. A follow-up questionnaire shows that participating in this experiment may increase students' trust in the empirical method.