Abstract
Seismic response simulations of the Los Angeles water supply to a Mw 7.8 San Andreas Fault earthquake scenario are used to assess the regional aqueduct and water distribution system performance in Southern California. Aqueducts sustain significant damage, and restoration of water flow is estimated to take between 4 and 18 months. Local emergency water supplies are insufficient to match the duration of aqueduct repairs, requiring severe water rationing. System serviceability declines rapidly due to numerous pipe leaks, causing serious difficulties for firefighting. Water service restoration to all customers is projected to take several months, with restoration of pre-earthquake water demand requiring more than a year. Business interruptions from long-term water rationing affect the regional economy greater than previously anticipated. Results from this scenario show how critical it is for all water agencies to prepare for a large-magnitude San Andreas earthquake.
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