Fire following Earthquake—Reviewing the State-of-the-Art of Modeling

Abstract

Models for estimating the effects of fire following earthquake (FFE) are reviewed, including comparisons of available ignition and spread/suppression models. While researchers have been modeling FFEs for more than 50 years, there has been a notable burst of research since 2000. In particular, borrowing from other fire modeling fields and taking advantage of improved computational power and data, there is a new trend towards physics-based rather than strictly empirical spread models; and towards employing different simulation techniques, such as cellular automata, rather than assuming fires spread in an elliptical shape. Past achievements include identification of the factors affecting FFE, documentation of historical events, and years of FFE model use by practitioners. Opportunities for future advances include continued development of physics-based spread models; better treatment of slope, water and transportation system functionality, and suppression by fire departments; and more validation and sensitivity analyses.