Use of Loss Estimates by Government Agencies in the Northridge Earthquake for Response and Recovery

Abstract

The rapid availability of estimated shaking intensities, dollar losses and social impacts following the Northridge earthquake of January 17, 1994, proved to be a valuable resource to the California Office of Emergency Services (OES) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in response and recovery decision making. These estimates were used to supplement standard reconnaissance procedures and expedite decisions which in previous disasters were delayed until observational assessments had been completed. Based on extensive, in-depth interviews with state and federal emergency managers, this paper will focus on how these estimates were used in making decisions. Methods and models employed in generating estimates will be addressed only briefly. Discussion will include an assessment of the potential benefits and pitfalls of near real-time loss estimation in emergency management.