Seismic Ground Motion Hazard Assessment at a Site near a Segmented Subduction Zone: The Roseau Dam,Saint Lucia,West Indies

Abstract

The seismic hazard at the site of a new dam in Saint Lucia, West Indies, is evaluated probabilistically for engineering design purposes. The assessment takes advantage of recent high quality regional seismological data, reappraised older instrumental catalogues and current tectonic interpretations. Saint Lucia stands at a position in the Lesser Antilles island arc where two distinct, seismically active, subduction zones appear to converge at different depths. As a result, the seismic hazard is critically dependent on site position relative to the boundaries of these major source zones, which each exhibit different activity rates. The ground motion hazard at the damsite is computed using the probabilistic logic-tree program PRISK, which accepts weighted input parameter distributions and is also able to model complex source geometries such as those needed to realistically represent a subduction zone. At an exceedance probability of 2×10⁻³ per annum, the expected peak ground acceleration on rock at the site is 0.27g, and the expected peak ground velocity is 12.9 cm/sec. At an exceedance probability of 10⁻⁴ per annum, the expected peak ground acceleration on rock at the site is 0.51g, and the expected peak ground velocity is 29.1 cm/sec. The major contributor to the seismic hazard is a large magnitude earthquake occurring in the northern segment of the Lesser Antilles subduction zone. Sensitivity tests show that the results are stable in the face of rational variations in the seismicity parameters but the hazard values are dependent on the choice of attenuation relationship which, in the absence of local information, has to be adopted from other subduction zone areas. The PGA obtained in this study is markedly higher than the value suggested in current regional code recommendations.