Abstract
A generalized linear version of Hawkes' self-exciting model serves to analyze and simulate foreshocks as well as background noise and aftershocks geneated at a tectonic fault. The model's inputs are magnitudes and occurrence times of characteristic earthquakes. It is partly validated and calibrated for decision making purposes using a physically based model and statistical data. The present model contains an excitation function relating earthquake magnitude with instantaneous increase in seismicity, and a memory function describing the decrease in seismicity with time. The excitation function depends markedly on the zone while the memory function is little sensitive thereto. Choice of the memory function and of its parameters rests on an optimum decision making approach. Results agree well with data from different parts of the world.
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