Earthquake Characteristics and Damage Statistics

Abstract

A simple Markov distribution relates the probability of occurrence of five discrete damage states for a specific building type in an earthquake. Within the model the damage distribution depends on parameters that represent the building's structural system, the matching of the site and building periods, and the site materials, and the site's acceleration. The constants in the model were determined using a maximum likelihood formulation and damage observations for a series of California and Chinese earthquakes. Model predictions of damage distributions agree well with reserved damage data not used in determining the constants. A maximum likelihood method allows determination of ground motion, attenuation, and/or earthquake moment magnitude from observations of damage for different types of structures located at diverse sites. A simple relationship exists for average damage estimate that closely matches historical observations.