Probabilistic Estimates of Maximum Seismic Horizontal Ground Acceleration on Rock in Alaska and the Adjacent Continental Shelf

Abstract

Estimates of ground motion hazard from earthquakes in Alaska and the adjacent continental shelf indicate that, for all the exposure times considered, the predicted values of peak acceleration are highest in the Gulf of Alaska and near the major active strike-slip faults of southern Alaska. The evaluations assume a Poisson model of earthquake occurrence and are based on seismic source zones delineated from regional geologic considerations and the historical record of earthquakes. Calculated peak acceleration values for a return period of 100 years range as high as 0.4 g in the Gulf of Alaska sector between Kodiak and Kayak Islands, are about 0.2 g near Anchorage, and 0.1 g near Fairbanks. Values for most of the rest of the state are estimated to be less than .04 g; however, most of the southern Alaska industrial and population base lies within the 0.2 g contour. For a return period of 500 years, peak accelerations are estimated as high as 0.8 g for parts of southeastern Alaska near the Fairweather fault, 0.6 g or greater for part of the Gulf of Alaska, and are about 0.45 g and 0.2 g, respectively, for the Anchorage and Fairbanks areas. Values of acceleration for a return period of 2,500 years exceed 0.6 g for much of southern Alaska and are 0.8 g or greater near the Fairweather and central Denali faults; estimated values are 0.1 g or greater for nearly all of onshore Alaska and for the continental shelf areas of the Bering Sea, Norton and Kotzebue Sounds, southern Chukchi Sea and southeastern Beaufort Sea.