Abstract
Growth arising because of technological progress is taking place at an exponential rate, as highlighted by the examples of energy use, transport, and chemical processes. Modern research into risk is confronting the negative consequences on health and the environment. It must distinguish between hazard (qualitative – the possibility of damage) and risk (quantitative – the actual amount of damage). Of the many ways of investigating risk, health protection has been a dominant influence in the development of environmental research. Great significance is attached to observations carried out on humans (and of defined environmental assets); however, substitute methods such as animal experiments, in vitro tests, and mechanistic studies in preventive efforts are gaining increasing importance. Risk management involves employing the tools of proscription and prescription, of protection of objects, and of the fixing of environmental standards (threshold levels). To date threshold values have had the greatest importance. Analysis of existing threshold systems in Germany reveals an unclear situation characterised by severe deficiencies: a lack of procedural structures, transparency, and evidence to support assessments. Standardisation and formalisation are essential to improve the credibility and the acceptance of thresholds and a multilevel model for this purpose is presented. This ascribes separate roles to scientific data collection and assessment, to cost–benefit analysis, and to the investigation of political decision making. The separate roles are to be set down in a procedural structure, the basic requirements of which are: the independence and neutrality of scientific investigations, the participation of interested sectors of society, transparency, and the obligation for evidence at all levels; furthermore, there is a need for monitoring and re-evaluation. In spite of certain successes in environmental policy, which are demonstrated by appropriate indicators (such as food chains), future development is overshadowed by the apparently unbridled growth in world population. The associated problems demand not only an internationalisation of environmental policy but also the fixing of new priorities.
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