The Future of Atomic Energy

Abstract

The claim that nuclear energy will not be necessary in the future depends upon the supposition that there need be no significant increase in global energy consumption. Population growth, and the demand to improve greatly the lot of the majority of the human race, make nonsense of this assumption. By the middle of the coming century the world's primary energy requirement will be at least three times its present level, if demographic and social factors are to be accommodated. The resources of fossil fuels are quite inadequate for the purpose and nuclear fission is the only means known at present that can fill the energy gap. All the possible energy sources have an environmental impact and introduce hazards. In this respect, under normal operating circumstances, nuclear fission compares favourably with the other energy options. Accidents to nuclear power plants, however, produce serious public concern about the risks involved in the exploitation of this bountiful resource. The Chernobyl accident has focused the attention of the whole world on these problems. However, in terms of loss of life, not only immediate losses but also eventual mortalities from cancer induced by direct exposure to radiation, the outcome is certain to fall far short of the effects of many other man-made disasters. Estimates of tens of thousands of cancer mortalities, arising from the lifetime ingestion, through the food chain, of radioactivity from the Chernobyl fallout, have no factual basis. The evidence in fact is to the contrary. Nevertheless, nuclear plant accidents on the Chernobyl scale are unacceptable in terms of their economic cost and the social disruption which they cause. Moreover, they are avoidable, since it is already possible, through the development of known technology, to design and construct nuclear power reactors which are not prone to catastrophic failure in the manner of the Chernobyl plant. The gas-cooled high-temperature reactor, in particular, with its chemically inert helium coolant, graphitic core structure and coated-particle fuel, offers the prospect for the development of nuclear power systems with a high degree of inherent safety and immunity to human error. Nuclear fission provides abundant means of meeting the foreseeable energy demands of the coming millennium. It would be irresponsible of any government to set aside such a vital resource for political reasons. On the other hand, the Chernobyl disaster shows that there can be no justification for pressing ahead in the construction of nuclear plant of types which do not conform to the most stringent criteria of inherent safety and containment.