The Mathematical Theory of Epidemics

Abstract

The methods and technique used in the mathematical analysis of epidemics are outlined. For this purpose two highly simplified models of epidemics are chosen and it is shown how some of the major characteristic features of epidemics are, in fact, mathematically predictable consequences of the assumptions made in the description of the models. Two mathematical approaches are described. The simpler, deterministic method ignores deviations of statistical variables from their average values, while the complete stochastic treatment takes account of such deviations and their probabilities. The basic difference between these two possible approaches to statistical problems is illustrated and discussed in the light of a simple example.