Use of volume correlation model to calculate lifetime of end-of-life steel

Abstract

A new mathematical model for calculating the lifetime of steel on an annual basis, called the volume correlation model is presented. The model compares the quantities of scrap collection with the steel consumption as well as evaluates the time difference between the two data sets. The lifetime of steel was calculated for the collected end-of-life steel amounts. The calculations were performed by assuming a full recovery of the steel consumption or a non-re-circulated accumulated steel stock in society denoted the full and true lifetime of steel. Based on the volume correlation model, the lifetime of steel was calculated for the total steel, low alloyed and special steel, and stainless steel in Sweden between 1898 and 2010. Previous studies on the lifetime of steel are based on experimental measurements and numerical calculations. The full lifetime of the total amount of steel from previous studies is 31 and 35 years for the years 2000 and 2006 respectively. Based on the volume correlation model the lifetime for the total steel amount, when assuming a full recovery of the material, was calculated as 34 and 37 years for these two years. This indicates that the lifetime of steel from the volume correlation model is in a similar range, but slightly higher, compared to previously reported data. The present results show that the model could be an alternative method to calculate the lifetime of steel and other recyclable materials on an annual basis. Results show that the lifetime of the total steel amount has continuously increased between 1975 and 2010. This indicates that the accumulated steel stock in society is still large enough to withstand the high collection rate of steel scrap. Furthermore, that there are as yet no lack of untapped resource of end-of-life steel scrap assets in Swedish society.

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