Spaceflight and the ever-increasing knowledge of the astronomical universe raise again the age-old questions if our existence as a species has any meaning, if the universe itself is a blind deterministic working-out of physical laws, or is the meaning of existence simply hidden from us? Here the emergence of an extraterrestrial paradigm is postulated, a new pattern, far transcending the limits of our planet, leading through the philosophy and psychology of expansion, to exploration and then colonization of space. That intelligence must expand its influence on the universe and thus assure its survival, is the author's final conclusion. The views expressed here are personal.
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References
1.
The poet Archibald McLeish wrote after the Apollo-8 journey around the Moon: ‘To see the Earth as it truly is, small and blue and beautiful in that eternal silence where it floats, is to see ourselves as riders on the Earth together, brothers on that bright loveliness in the eternal cold – brothers who know now they are truly brothers.’
2.
See Donella Meadows et al., The Limits to Growth, Universe, New York (1972).
3.
See, among others, Robert Heilbroner, An Inquiry into the Human Prospect, W. W. Norton, New York (1974).
4.
The aspirations of the less developed nations were reflected in their advocacy of a New International Economic Order at the United Nations General Assembly in1974.
5.
Teilhard de Chardin wrote that disenchantment would be conceivable, and indeed inevitable, ‘if as a result of growing reflection we came to believe that our end could only be collective death in a hermetically sealed world’. Quoted inMurdyW. H., Anthropocentrism: a modern version, Science187, 1168–1172(28 March1975).
6.
Useful descriptions are provided in Isaac Asimov, The Universe, Avon Books, New York (1966). Asimov points out (p. 39) that in 1700 it was still possible to believe that there was a solid vault bounding the universe, one that contained the stars as luminous dots, and that this solid vault lay (possibly) not far outside the confines of the solar system. See also Rudolf Thiel, And There Was Light, Knopf, New York (1957).
7.
Copernicus, of course, was not the first to propose that the Earth is not the center of the solar system. This had been suggested by Aristarchus nineteen centuries before. Asimov, Ref. 6, p. 26.
8.
Historian WilliamH. McNeill wrote that ‘Perhaps just because the silent emptiness of Newton's infinite space threatened to engulf and utterly lose so petty a planet as Earth, the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries were particularly prolific of new religious movements and sects, all emphasizing a direct, emotionally charged experience with God.’ The Rise of the West, p. 744. New American Library (Mentor Books], New York (1965).
9.
Whether the universe has any macrostructure beyond clusters and superclusters of galaxies is still unknown. See Edward J. Groth et al.,The clustering of galaxies. Sci. Am. 237, 76–98(November1977), and Margaret J. Geiler, Large scale structure in the universe, Am. Sci. 66, 176 (March 1978).
10.
The idea of chemical evolution can be traced at least as far back as Thomas Huxley, but its growth to scientific respectability has been associated with the work of Oparin, Haldane, Miller and others in this century. An excellent condensed discussion of the phenomenon of life by exobiologist Carl Sagan is to be found in theEncyclopaedia Britannica, Macropedia, Vol. 10, pp. 893–911 (1974). A useful survey of current thinking about biological evolution was carried in Sci, Am. 239(September 1978).
11.
This theme is examined in James Gunn's Alternate Worlds; The Illustrated History of Science Fiction, A & WVisual Library, New York (1975).
12.
Lucian of Samosata, A True History and Icaromenippus, a.d. 160; English translations: Oxford (1663);Murray, Scribner and Welford, New York (1880); Clarendon Press, Oxford (1905).
13.
See Gunn Ref. 11, pp. 38–51. At least one book, Marjorie Hope Nicholson's Voyages to the Moon (1948), has been written about fictional journeys to the Moon.
14.
The principal examples were Jules Verne, From the Earth to the Moon (1865), and WellsH. G., The First Men on the Moon (1901).
15.
LowellPercival, Mare (1895), Mars and its Canals (1906), and Mars as the Abode of Life (1908).
16.
GoddardRobert H., ‘The Ultimate Migration’, MS. dated 14 January1918, The Goddard Biblio Log, Friends of the Goddard Library (11 November 1972).
17.
HaleEdward E., ‘The Brick Moon’, Atlantic Monthly XXIV (October, November, December1869). A sequel appeared in the same magazine in February 1870.
18.
VerneJules, Off on a Comet, Paris (1878), and Kurd K. Lasswitz, On Two Planets, Leipzig (1897). A useful review of the historical development of these ideas is found in Robert Salkeld, Space colonization now?, Astronaut. Aeronaut. 13, No. 9, 30–34(September 1975).
19.
See. for example, Beyond the Planet Earth, translated byKenneth Sayers, Pergamon Press, New York (1960).
20.
Herm ann Oberth, The Rocket into Interplanetary Space, Munich (1923), and Hermann Noordung, The Problems of Space Flight, Schmidt and Co., Berlin (1929).
21.
BernalJ. D., The World, the Flesh, and the Devil, Methuen, London (1929).
22.
For example, Oberth suggested that a station in space could observe the Earth and aid navigation, and that it would be valuable for building large structures and as a refueling depot for spaceships. SeeHeppenheimerT. A., Colonies in Space, p. 123. Warner Books, New York (1978).
23.
See KrafftA. Ehricke, Extraterrestrial imperative, Bull. At. Sci. 27, 18–26 (November 1971). In The Fourth Kingdom (Aquari Corp., Midland, Michigan, 1975) William J. Sauber used a biological analogy for Man's growth into the universe.
24.
For one example of books critical of the US space program, see Am it ai Etzioni, The Moon-Doggie: Domestic and International Implications of the Space Race, Doubleday, Garden City, New York (1964).
25.
BainbridgeWilliam S., The Spaceflight Revolution, John Wiley, New York (1976).
26.
On communications, see Burton I. Edelson, Satellite communications: a benefit realized, Science190(24 October1975), unnumbered page (editorial).
27.
Since the dawn of the space age, there have been recurrent suggestions that strategic problems also could be solved by extraterrestrial systems. See, for example, Robert Saikeld, War and Space, Prentice–Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey (1970).
28.
Recent US space policy statements have emphasized this point. See the speech by President Carter at the Kennedy Space Center on 1 October1978, and the White House Fact Sheet on US Civil Space Policy dated 11 October 1978.
29.
For suggestions of Soviet intentions to build a Shuttlelike vehicle, seeizvestia interview with Academician Boris Petrov, Spaceflight 16, 402 (November 1974) and: Soviets build reusable Shuttle, Aviat. Week Space Technol. 108, 14–15(20 March 1978). The idea of a space plane was proposed as long ago as the 1930s by Eugen Sanger.
30.
For a review of US and Soviet space activities, see Charles S. Sheldon II, United States and Soviet Progress in Space: Summary Data through1976and a Forward Look, Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress, 77–99SP (5 April 1977).
31.
For an example of some Soviet philosophical views, see Yuri Shkolenko, Space – boundless horizons for the personality, Soviet Life (April1977). US space expert Charles S. Sheldon II writes that: ‘For a system which flaunts its atheism, there is a certain element of secular religion in the official attitude that Soviet man through his mastery of science and technology can control his destiny for the good of his system of society and government.’ Soviet Space Programs, 1971–75, p. 16. Staff Report for the Committee on Aeronautical and Space Sciences, US Senate, USGovernment Printing Office, Washington, DC(1976). By contrast, the US appears to be giving increasing emphasis to civil space systems for commercial purposes. See the White House statements noted in Ref. 28. For an overview of commerciai opportunities in space, see Vernon Louviere, Space: industry's new frontier, Nation's Business (February 1978).
32.
Space colony proponent Gerard O'Neill has stated that it would have been impossible to plan for space colonization until the Apollo lunar samples were returned for analysis. Testimony before the Subcommittee on Space Science and Applications of the Committee on Science and Technology, US House of Representatives, 23 July1975.
33.
The recent statements of US space policy noted above formalize a de facto change of emphasis from exploration to utilization [Ref. 28].
34.
White House Press Release, 1 March1970.
35.
See JamesE. Oberg, Russia meant to win the Moon race, Spaceflight17, 163–171, 200 (May1975), and Sheldon, Soviet Space Programs [Ref. 31].
36.
Radar observations of Venus in1956showed that the surface was very hot (Heppenheimer, Ref. 22, p. 12). It has been argued that the first close up pictures of Mars, taken from Mariner IV in 1965 and showing Mars to be a cratered desert, were the beginning of the end for a large US space program.
37.
AvernerSee M. M. and McElroyR. D.(eds.), On the Habitability of Mars: An Approach to Planetary Ecosynthesis, NASA SP-414 (1978). Pioneering suggestions for terraforming the terrestrial planets were made by Carl Sagan in: The planet Venus, Science133, 849–858(24 March 1961) and: Planetary engineering on Mars, Icarus20, 513–514 (1973). James E. Oberg has provided a review of terraforming concepts in: Terraforming, Astronomy6, No. 5, 7–25 (May 1978).
38.
Advocacy of a search for extrasolar planets is included in a report of a workshop on this subject in SETI: The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, NASA SP-419 (1978).
39.
Perhaps the most important of these isProject Daedalus, a report issued by the British Interplanetary Society in 1978. See also Robert L. Forward, A programme for interstellar exploration, J. Br. Interplanet. Soc. 29, No. 10, 611–632(October 1976).
40.
SeeG. Harry Stine, A program for starflight.Analog12–27(October1973); Edward S. Gilfillan, Jr, Migration to the Stars, Luce Publishing Co., Washington, DC (1975); John W. MacVey, Journey to Alpha Centauri, Macmillan, New York(1965).
41.
EhrickeKrafft A., A long-range perspective and some fundamental aspects of interstellar evolution, J, Br. Interplanet Soc. 28, No, 11, 713–734(November1975).
42.
LevittI. M. and ColeDandridge M., Exploring the Secrets of Space, pp. 276–277. Prentice-Hail, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey (1963).
43.
O'NeillGerard K., The colonization of space, Phys. Today27, 32–40 (September 1974). Soviet astronomer Iosif Shklovskii, writing in Social Sciences, forecast that within 250 years it will be possible to construct a vast ‘artificial biosphere’ in outer space capable of supporting 10 × 109 people. Quoted by AP, 16 May 1976.
44.
EhrickeKrafft A., Space industrial productivity: new options for the future, in Future Space Programs1975, Vol. II, Subcommittee on Space Science and Applications of the Committee on Science and Technology, US House of Representatives (1975).
45.
StineG. Harry, The third industrial revolution: the exploitation of the space environment, Spaceflight16, 327–334 (September 1974).
46.
GlaserPeter E., Power from the Sun: its future, Science162, 857–860 (November 1968).
47.
ClarkeArthur C., Electromagnetic launching as a major contributor to space flight, J. Br. Interplanet. Soc. 9, 261–267 (November 1950).
48.
EhrickeKrafft A., Lunar industries and their value for the human environment on Earth, Space Division, North American Rockwell, SD 72-SA-0176 (also in Astronaut. Acta1, 585–22, 1974); Neil P. Ruzic, Where the Winds Sleep, Doubleday, Garden City, New York(1970). A wide variety of possible human activities on the Moon is described in Lunar Utilization, Lunar Science Institute, Houston, Texas (1976).
49.
O'NeillGerard K., Space manufacturing and energy supply to the Earth, Science190, 943–947(5 December1975).
50.
O'LearyBrian, Mining the Apollo and Amor asteroids. Science197, 363–366(22 July1977). The idea of bringing asteroids into orbit around the Earth had been proposed earlier by Dandridge Cole in Islands in Space, Chilton, New York(1965).
51.
GaleWilliam A. and EdwardsGreg, ‘Models of long-term growth’, paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Association for theAdvancement of Science, Washington, DC, 15 February1978. To be published by the AAAS in a special volume.
52.
von PuttkamerJesco, Developing space occupancy: perspectives on NASA future space program planning, J. Br. Interplanet. Soc. 29, 147–173 (March 1976), and: The next 25 years: industrialization of space –rationale for planning, J. Br. Interplanet. Soc. 30, 257–264 (July 1977).
53.
MichaudMichael A. G., Two tracks to new worlds, Spaceflight18, 2–6 (January 1976).
54.
MichaudMichael A. G., Spaceflight, colonization, and independence: a synthesis, J. Br, Interplanet. Soc. 30, 83–95(Part I) (March1977); 203–212 (Part II ((June 1977) ; 323–331 (Part III) (September 1977).
55.
ZwickyFritz, ‘Morphological astronomy’, the Hailey lecture for1948, delivered at Oxford, 2 May 1948, in Observatory68, 121–143(August 1948).
56.
Levitt and Cole, Ref. 42, pp. 275–278.
57.
DysonFreeman J., Search for artificial sources of infrared radiation. Science131, 1667 (3 June1960). Dyson has also suggested enriching the atmospheres of Mars and Venus with water ice from comet nuclei, outer planet moons, or the rings of Saturn. Quoted in Adrian Berry, The Next Ten Thousand Years, p. 141. Jonathan Cape, London(1972).
58.
Gale and Edwards, Ref. 51
59.
See, for example, Magoroh Maruyama, Design principles for extraterrestrial communities. Futures8, 104–121(April1976).
60.
Shklovskii, in his artle in Social Sciences, wrote that ‘the knowledge that we are a kind of “vanguard” of matter, if not in the entire universe, then in a tremendous part of it, should be a powerful stimulus for creative activities of every individual, and of Mankind as a whole’, AP, 16 May1978[Ref. 43].
61.
Quoted in Gunn, Ref. 11, pp. 225–226.
62.
For a condensed discussion, see Sagan's essay on life in the Encyclopaedia Britannica and the special issue of Scientific American noted above [Ref. 10].
63.
ArthurC. Clarke wrote that'The challenge of the spaces between the worlds is a stupendous one; but if we fail to meet it, the story of our race will be drawing to a close. Humanity will have turned its back upon the still untrodden heights and will be descending the long slope that stretches, across a thousand million years of time, down to the shores of the primeval sea.’ The Promise of Space, p. 314. Harper and Row, New York (1968). Erik Paterson, referring to the hypothesis that the entire biomass of the Earth is a single living entity able to control and direct the changes in its own environment to ensure its own survival, has argued that space colonization would enable this entity to reproduce itself. Children of Gaia, L-5 News3, No. 10, 2 (October 1978).
64.
McNeillRef. 8, p. 877.
65.
For an interesting discussion, see Romouldas Sviedrys, Energy crises: a history lesson, L-S News2, 1–4(March1977).
66.
Models of solar system civilization have been suggested in Dyson, The world, the flesh, and the devil, inSaganCarl(ed.), Communication with Extraterrestrial Intelligence, p. 385. MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts (1973); in Bernal, Ref. 21; and in numerous science fiction works.
67.
The impact of satellite solar power on the limits to growth has been examined by J. Peter Vajk, The impact of space colonization on world dynamics, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change9, 361–400 (1976).
68.
DuBosRené J., Humanizing the Earth, Science179, 769–772(23 February1973).
69.
MonodJacques, in his book Chance and Necessity, (p. 180), wrote that: ‘Man knows at last that he is alone in the universe's unfeeling immensity, out of which he emerged only be chance. His destiny is nowhere spelled out, nor is his duty. The kingdom above or the darkness below; it is for him to choose.’Knopf, New York (1970).
70.
JastrowRobert, Until the Sun Dies, p. 13. W. W. Norton, New York (1977).
71.
Albert Claude referred to life as anti-entropy in his Nobel Prize lecture: The coming of age of the cell. Science189, 433–435(8 August1975). Aidan M. G. Moore developed this theme in the context of colonizing the solar system in: The coup against entropy. Spaceflight18, 126–129 (April 1976).
72.
The question of determinism vs. free will is, of course, a fundamental issue in science and philosophy, as illustrated by the debate surrounding B. F. Skinner's book Beyond Freedom and Dignity, Knopf, New York (1971).
73.
Dolphin brains are as large and possibly as complex as human brains, but dolphins lack manipulative digits and technologies. For work on dolphins, see John Lilly, Man and Dolphin, Doubleday, Garden City, New York (1961) and Mind of the Dolphin: A Non-Human Intelligence, Doubleday, Garden City, New York (1967).
74.
O'NeillGerard K., The high frontier-technical progress, a resolution, commitments. Astronaut. Aeronaut. 16, 18–20 (March 1978).
75.
A chart of the economics of a space manufacturing facility producing satellite solar power stations appears in the appendix to O'Neill's testimony before the House of Representatives, also published in Co-Evolution Quarterly 17 (Fall1975).
76.
For critical views on space processing, see Materials Processing in Space, published by theNational Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC (1978).
77.
This author was described as saying in1973that we could not wait for the platform to stabilize. Bainbridge, Ref. 25, p. 172.
78.
World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, 1966–1975, p. 1. USArms Control and Disarmament Agency, Washington, DC(1976).
79.
There have been, in the Western world, repeated swings between the urge to dominate and reorder nature and the desire to live as part of it. See Frederick E. Smith's review of Donald Worster, Nature's Economy, Sierra Club Books, San Francisco (1977), in Science200, 526 (5 May 1978). For some examples of the emotional reactions, pro and con, which the space colonization concept provokes from various celebrities, see: Should we colonize space?, L-5 News2, 13 (November 1977).
80.
See remarks by Ashley Montagu in Life Beyond the Earth and the Mind of Man, ed. BerendzenRichard. p 74. NASA SP-328 (1973).
81.
See PaulL. Csonka, Space colonization: an invitation to disaster. Futurist11, 285–290 (October 1977).
82.
MorrisonPhilip, testimony on Extraterrestrial Intelligence Research on 19 September1978, Subcommittee on Space Science and Applications, Committee on Science and Technology, US House of Representatives, Sebastian von Hoerner examined the connection between population growth and extraterrestrial expansion in: Population explosion and interstellar expansion. J. Br. Interplanet. Soc. 28, No. 11, 691–712(November 1975).
83.
Quoted in Shkolenko, Ref. 31.
84.
Gale and Edwards, Ref. 51.
85.
Communiqué issued at Bogota, 4 December1976.
86.
KuhnThomas S., The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, 2ndEdn, University of Chicago Press, Chicago (1970).
87.
We first gained this perspective in1978with a picture from Voyager 1 which showed both the Earth and the Moon. For a particularly attractive color reproduction, see Astronomy6, No. 6, 20 (June 1978).
88.
The debate over genetic manipulation was focused by voluntary guidelines on experiments with recombinant DNA that emerged from a conference in Asilomar, California, in1974. See: Genetic manipulation: temporary embargo imposed on research, Science 185, 332–334(26 July 1974).
89.
On the other hand, Heppenheimer points out that the artificial biosphere model allows expansion without adaptation to new environments [Ref. 22].
90.
See MichaelA. G. Michaud, Spaceflight, colonization, and independence: a synthesis, Part III, and Michael A. G. Michaud, The consequences of extraterrestrial colonization, L-5 News2, 4–6(February1977) (paper delivered at the annual meeting of the American Anthropological Association, 20 November 1976).
91.
See MichaelA. G. Michaud, After Apollo, Spaceflight15, 362–367 (October 1973).
92.
See MichaelA. G. Michaud, An extraterrestrial ethos, America139, 330–331(11 November1978).
93.
FeinbergGerald, The PrometheusiProject, pp. 142–148. Doubleday, Garden City, New York (1968).
94.
See GerardK. O'Neill, The High Frontier: Human Colonies in Space, p. 214. William Morrow, New York (1977); and Gale and Edwards, Ref. 51.
95.
Carl Sagan has written that efficient interstellar travel to the farthest reaches of our galaxy is a feasible objective for humanity. Carl Sagan and Iosif Shklovskii, Intelligent Life in the Universe, p. 449. Dell (Delta Books), New York (1966). Dole has estimated that an expanding human species could colonize the galaxy in a million years. See Stephen H. Dole and Isaac Asimov, Planets for Man, pp. 224–225. Random House, New York(1964). Intergalactic flight might be made possible by time dilatation or by a stepping-stone strategy, using stars, clusters and minor galaxies between the major galaxies of the local group. Michaud, Spaceflight, colonization, and independence: a synthesis. Part III, p. 328 [Ref. 54].
96.
Gale and Edwards, Ref. 51.
97.
Gilfillan believes that the latter will happen within 200 years. Gilfillan, Ref. 40, p. 36.
98.
See JamesL. Christian(ed.), Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence: The First Encounter, PrometheusBooks, Buffalo, New York (1976), and Michael A. G. Michaud, The consequences of contact, AIAA Stud. J., 18–23 (Winter 1977–78).
99.
See, for a summary overview, Carl Sagan and Frank Drake, The search for extraterrestrial intelligence, Sci. Am. 232, 80–89(May, 1975).
100.
At the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in February1978, radio astronomer Gerritt Verschuur asked if advocates of the search were not really asking the US Government to finance a search for God.
101.
There is an interesting debate in the scientific literature on the question of why we have not detected advanced alien civilizations. See Gale and Edwards, Ref. 51; Michael H. Hart, An explanation for the absence of extraterrestrials on Earth, Q. J. R. As Iron. Soc. 16, 128–135 (1975); T. B. H. Kuiper and M. Morris, Searching for extraterrestrial civilizations, Science 196, 614–621 (6 May 1977); David Viewing, Directty interacting extraterrestrial technological communities, J. Br. Interplanet. Soc. 28, 735–744 (November 1975); and J. A. Ball, The zoo hypotheses, Icarus 19, 347–349 (1973).
102.
Freeman Dyson has expressed concern that we may first encounter a civilization in which technology is out of control, a sort of technological cancer spreading through the galaxy.
103.
For discussions of interstellar politics, seeMichaudMichael A. G., Interstellar negotiation, Foreign Serv. J. 49, 10–14, 29–30 (December1972), and Ben Bova, Galactic geopolitics. Analog 51–62 (January 1972).
104.
The question of altruism as a survival strategy within a species is discussed by Edward 0. Wilson in Sociobiology: The New Synthesis, Belknap Press of theHarvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts (1975).
105.
KuiperSee T. B. H., ‘Man's place in the universe and the possibility of extraterrestrial life’, paper presented to the Sixth International Conference on the Unity of the Sciences (1977). Available from the author at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California 91103, USA.
106.
Teilhard de Chardin suggested that mankind and other sentient species will evolve spiritually, towards a universal intelligent entity. See Kuiper, Man's place in the universe and the possibility of extraterrestrial life [Ref. 105].
107.
Jamal Islam has suggested that any civilizations which survive 1027 years could crowd around central galactic black holes to extract their rotational energy. The ultimate fate of the universe, Sky and Telescope57, 13–18(January1979). Dyson has argued that, in an open universe, the time required for complete entropy is so long as to make this question somewhat irrelevant. He has also suggested that an organism (perhaps a machine intelligence), thinking a finite number of thoughts, could replace itself with successive models, each consuming half as much energy as its predecessor and thinking only half as fast, by thinking the same number of thoughts in twice the time. This would allow intelligence to survive even in a very advanced state of universal entropy. ‘Thinking small in space’, paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, 15 February 1978.
108.
Some scientists are troubled by this idea. See Malcolm Browne, Scientists expect new clues to origin of universe, New York Times (12 March1978).
109.
The Dutch astronomer Jan H. Oort suggested in1950that comets originate from a vast cloud of small bodies that orbits the Sun at a distance of one light year; hence Oort cloud.
110.
The Editor drew the author's attention to the fact that some of the ideas discussed in the present review were the subject of W. Olaf Stapledon's two great classic works: Last and First Men (Methuen, London, 1930) and Star Maker (London, 1937); jointly republished by Dover Publications, New York (1968).
