A methodology to assess and select seismic fragility curves: Application to the case of Costa Rica

Abstract

Different seismic risk studies have been carried out in the Central American region to quantify the human and economic losses caused by seismic events. The appropriate use of seismic fragility curves (FCs) allows a better approximation of the level of performance of a structural system in the face of seismic hazards. In this respect, an inadequate selection of FCs can lead to a notably unreliable estimation of damages and losses. This research contributes a methodology for assessing and selecting FCs for seismic risk studies from a catalog of existing proposals available in the literature. The methodology has been applied to the case study of Costa Rica, encompassing a bibliographic search, meetings with Central American experts, and the compilation of a catalog with the FCs used in different vulnerability projects. The conclusion drawn is that FCs with very different probabilities of damage are being used in the diverse vulnerability projects for buildings with the same attributes. Moreover, the proposed methodology allows knowing the reliability level of the FCs obtained depending on which class the curve was classified into based on its score. Therefore, it allows the adequacy and uncertainty related to the selected FCs to be established, a subject that researchers should consider in seismic vulnerability and risk studies.