Are we at war? Below the threshold,signals without bullets,and the future of peace

Abstract

Are we at war? While this question was once answered through declarations, troop movements, or kinetic violence, it has become increasingly difficult to resolve. Drawing on Hasselbladh's (2025) concept of the shadow of war, this essay examines how contemporary conflicts are deliberately organized below the threshold of armed violence and how this transformation reshapes sociological understandings of war and peace. It argues that military institutional specificity lies not in visible practices but in a latent potential that structures meaning, authority, and legitimacy even in the absence of war. Extending this logic beyond the military, the essay suggests that many contemporary conflicts are structured to never fully materialize, but instead operate through influence, disruption, and ambiguity, relying on signals rather than events and anticipation rather than resolution. As a result, the question ‘are we at war?’ becomes structurally irresolvable, uncertainty emerges as an organizing principle, and peace appears not as the stable opposite of war but as a fragile and contested achievement.