Seeing the Future Through Colored Glasses: Heuristics and Biases in Futures Thinking

Abstract

This paper explores the key role played by heuristics and biases in futures thinking. Heuristics and biases shape how individuals and groups envision futures, often leading to errors or narrower scenarios. Twenty-five common heuristics and biases related to future-oriented thinking have been identified from previous literature and classified into three categories. The Cherry Picking category includes nine heuristics and biases that may impact information collected and used in foresight. The Group Bubble category contains eight heuristics and biases in social interactions. Finally, the eight heuristics and biases of the Outcome Misperception category lead the focus to a “desired” outcome rather than various possible scenarios. Building on this classification, we explore possible mitigation strategies in foresight methodologies. We argue that awareness of these cognitive mechanisms in foresight practices could enable futurists to uncover neglected future possibilities, improving both the richness and applicability of foresight processes and helping to address future myopia. Rather than providing an exhaustive review, this paper aims to equip foresight practitioners with tools to enhance creativity and critical thinking.