Assessment of factors influencing student performance grades in Somaliland primary schools: Insights from an ordinal logistic regression analysis

Abstract

This study examines how academic performance in Somaliland’s National Primary Examination reflects patterns of inequality shaped by intersecting factors such as gender, location, school type, and region. We approach these variables not as isolated predictors but as indicators of deeper structural disparities. Analyzing a nationally representative dataset of 20,638 students using ordinal logistic regression, this research explores how outcomes are influenced by systemic forces of geographic marginalization and institutional stratification. The analysis reveals significant disparities. Female students outperform male students, with 29.8% achieving Grade A compared to 25.9% of males. Urban students demonstrate superior performance, with an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of 1.44 favoring urban areas. The gap between private and public schools is stark; public-school students face double the failure rate of their private school peers (5.7% vs 3.3%). Regionally, areas like Sanaag and Badhan show exceptional results, while others struggle, highlighting uneven development. These findings underscore the need for targeted interventions to address structural inequities. We recommend policies focused on investing in rural and public schools and supporting students affected by socioeconomic barriers. In doing so, we contribute to broader conversations about equity and justice in African education systems.