Theorizing the time-dynamics of violence

Abstract

Violence depends not only on long-standing background conditions but on time-patterns that determine when and if it breaks out, how long it lasts and how severe it is. Advances in recording technology including video cameras and CCTV have made it possible to locate turning points and sequences on the micro level. Different scales of violence have different time-dynamics, ranging from micro to meso to macro. These include the following: micro-rhythms (fractions of seconds) of synchronization and dominance in setting rhythms in face-to-face interaction; violence-triggering thresholds (a few minutes or less) in small groups, where boredom makes violence abort; tension-building danger time-zones (lasting a few hours) in organized crowds; revolutionary tipping points (a few days); duration of riots (a few days, but several weeks long if the riot moves from place to place or is intermittently scheduled); mass crisis and hysteria zone of national solidarity, rapidly reaching a plateau and lasting 3 to 6 months before declining; and macro time-forks, where sudden victory is relatively low in casualties, but where a stalemate leads to years of dispersed conflict with high attrition costs.