Purpose: To identify baseline characteristics that predict visual outcomes after a lapse in treatment among patients with diabetic macular edema (DME) who received intravitreal antivascular endothelial growth factor injections. Methods: In this retrospective study, patients with DME who had lapses in treatment of 3 months or longer were separated into 2 groups (stable vision, n = 201; vision loss, n = 61) based on an Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study vision loss threshold of 10 letters. Stepwise backward logistic regression was used to analyze baseline factors associated with vision loss and to create a predictive algorithm. Results: In the final regression model, the length of lapse in treatment (odds ratio [OR]; 1.15, 95% CI, 1.07-1.25), diabetic foot disease (OR, 3.02; 95% CI, 1.09-8.2), and Medicaid insurance (OR, 4.60; 95% CI, 1.20-18.7) were positively associated with vision loss (P < .05). Time since diagnosis of diabetic retinopathy (OR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.91-0.99) was negatively associated with vision loss (P < .05). The final prediction model had a sensitivity of 20% and a specificity of 84%, with an area under the curve of 65%. Conclusions: For patients with DME at high risk for a lapse in treatment, baseline characteristics can help predict vision loss and guide management.
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