This article attempts to disentangle the age–period–cohort (APC) effect of the puzzling decline in female labour force participation in India. The individual-level data obtained from the National Sample Survey (NSS) (1993–2018) have been put to use, and the maximum entropy approach has been adopted for analysis. This study reveals that the prime reproductive age of women largely contributes to determining female labour force participation in India, signifying a considerable influence of marriage and childbearing events on women’s working life. The results inform that rural, lower caste and low educated women have lower work participation rates, as against urban and higher educated women having a greater participation rate at a younger age. However, beyond the prime reproductive age, the participation rate of urban and higher educated women significantly declines, while the participation of rural, lower caste and low educated women tends to increase. The period 1999–2005 in particular depicts an adverse effect on female labour force participation across all population groups. But this period of adversity is maintained for rural and less educated women beyond 2005 as well, and is reversed for urban women and for those having secondary or higher levels of education. Furthermore, it is observed that the cohort effect (owing to declining fertility and better educational transition) does not display its expected role in inducing a rise in female labour force participation, contesting the prevailing sociocultural norms. In summary, this study observes that the APC effect is adverse for marginalised women, but a favourable prospect for higher educated and urban women. This study observes that age and period effects have a significant contribution to female labour participation in India. Besides, this study presents some salient features of women’s working life cycle behaviour that are highly relevant for policy discussions. The study concludes by arguing that generating investment in higher education and enabling an inclusive labour market with due consideration of women’s reproductive burden may help increase the female labour force participation rate (FLPR) in India.
AaronsonS., FallickB., FiguraA., PingleJ. F., & WascherW. L. (2006). The recent decline in the labor force participation rate and its implications for potential labor supply. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2006(1), 69–154.
2.
AbrahamV. (2013). Missing labour force or ‘de-feminization’ of labour force in India (Working Paper No. 452)? Centre for Development Studies.
3.
AhnN., & MiraP. (2002). A note on the changing relationship between fertility and female employment rates in developed countries. Journal of Population Economics, 15(4), 667–682.
4.
AiyarM. S., & ModyM. A. (2011). The demographic dividend: Evidence from the Indian states. International Monetary Fund.
5.
AkerlofG. A. (1980). A theory of social custom, of which unemployment may be one consequence. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 94(4), 749–775.
6.
AmirthamS. N., & KumarA. (2021). Gender parity in STEM higher education in India: A trend analysis. International Journal of Science Education, 43(12), 1950–1964.
7.
AndresL. A., DasguptaB., JosephG., AbrahamV., & CorreiaM. (2017). Precarious drop: Reassessing patterns of female labor force participation in India[World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 8024]. World Bank.
8.
AssaadR., KrafftC., & SelwanessI. (2022). The impact of marriage on women’s employment in the Middle East and North Africa. Feminist Economics, 28(2), 247–279.
9.
BardhanP. K. (1979). Labor supply functions in a poor agrarian economy. The American Economic Review, 69(1), 73–83.
10.
BeckerG. (1965). A theory of the allocation of time. Economic Journal, 75, 493–517.
11.
BeckerG. S. (1985). Human capital, effort, and the sexual division of labor. Journal of Labor Economics, 3(1, Part 2), S33–S58.
12.
BehrmanJ., & Gonalons-PonsP. (2020). Women’s employment and fertility in a global perspective (1960–2015). Demographic Research, 43, 707.
13.
BhallaS., & KaurR. (2011). Labour force participation of women in India: Some facts, some queries. Asia Research Centre.
14.
BloomD. E., CanningD., FinkG., & FinlayJ. E. (2009). Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend. Journal of Economic Growth, 14, 79–101.
15.
BloomD., CanningD., & SevillaJ. (2003). The demographic dividend: A new perspective on the economic consequences of population change. Rand Corporation.
16.
BreitkreuzR., StantonC. J., BradyN., Pattison-WilliamsJ., KingE. D., MishraC., & SwallowB. (2017). The Mahatma Gandhi national rural employment guarantee scheme: A policy solution to rural poverty in India?Development Policy Review, 35(3), 397–417.
17.
BrowningM., CrawfordI., & KnoefM. (2012). The age-period cohort problem: Set identification and point identification[Cemmap Working Paper No. CWP02/12]. Cemmap.
18.
Cáceres-DelpianoJ. (2012). Can we still learn something from the relationship between fertility and mother’s employment? Evidence from developing countries. Demography, 49(1), 151–174.
19.
CarswellG., & De NeveG. (2014). MGNREGA in Tamil Nadu: A story of success and transformation?Journal of Agrarian Change, 14(4), 564–585.
20.
ChandrasekharS. (2010). Factors affecting age at marriage and age at first birth in India. Journal of Quantitative Economics, 8, 81–97.
ChaudharyR., & VerickS. (2014). Female labour force participation in India and beyond (pp. 1–32). ILO.
23.
ChauhanR. K., MohantyS. K., SubramanianS. V., ParidaJ. K., & PadhiB. (2016). Regional estimates of poverty and inequality in India, 1993–2012. Social Indicators Research, 127, 1249–1296.
24.
ChowdhuryS. (2011). Employment in India: What does the latest data show?Economic & Political Weekly, 46(32), 23–26.
25.
DattaA., EndowT., & MehtaB. S. (2020). Education, caste and women’s work in India. The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, 63, 387–406.
26.
DeatonA. (1997). The analysis of household surveys: A microeconometric approach to development policy. World Bank Publications.
27.
DeatonA. S., & PaxsonC. (1994). Saving, growth, and aging in Taiwan. In Studies in the economics of aging (pp. 331–362). University of Chicago Press.
28.
DesaiS. (2010). The other half of the demographic dividend. Economic & Political Weekly, 45(40), 12.
29.
DesaiS., & JainD. (1994). Maternal employment and changes in family dynamics: The social context of women’s work in rural South India. Population and Development Review, 20, 115–136.
30.
DurandJ. D. (1975). The labor force in economic development: An international comparison of census statistics. Princeton University Press.
31.
GlennN. D. (2005). Cohort analysis (Vol. 5). Sage Publications.
32.
GoldinC. (1983). The changing economic role of women: A quantitative approach. The Journal of Interdisciplinary History, 13(4), 707–733.
33.
GoldinC. (1994). The U-shaped female labor force function in economic development and economic history. National Bureau of Economic Research.
34.
GuptaN. (2007). Indian women in doctoral education in science and engineering: A study of informal milieu at the reputed Indian institutes of technology. Science, Technology, & Human Values, 32(5), 507–533.
35.
GuptaN. (2023). Women in STEM in India: Understanding challenges through social constructionist perspective. American Behavioral Scientist, 67(9), 1084–1103.
36.
HammamR. A., AbbasR. A., & HunterM. S. (2012). Menopause and work—The experience of middle-aged female teaching staff in an Egyptian governmental faculty of medicine. Maturitas, 71(3), 294–300.
37.
HanochG., & HonigM. (1985). “True” age profiles of earnings: Adjusting for censoring and for period and cohort effects. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 67, 383–394.
38.
Himanshu. (2011). Employment trends in India: A re-examination. Economic & Political Weekly, 46, 43–59.
39.
HirwayI. (2012). Missing labour force: An explanation. Economic & Political Weekly, 47, 67–72.
40.
International Labour Office (ILO). (2018). World employment and social outlook 2018: Greening with jobs.
41.
KannanK. P., & RaveendranG. (2012). Counting and profiling the missing labour force. Economic & Political Weekly, 47, 77–80.
42.
KapoorR. (2020). Technology, jobs and inequality: Evidence from India’s manufacturing sector. Accelerators of India’s growth—Industry, trade and employment: Festschrift in honor of Bishwanath Goldar (pp. 301–321). Springer.
43.
KhareM. (2014). Employment, employability and higher education in India: The missing links. Higher Education for the Future, 1(1), 39–62.
44.
KirdarM. G., DayıoğluM., & Koçİ. (2009). The impact of schooling on the timing of marriage and fertility: Evidence from a change in compulsory schooling law. University Library of Munich.
45.
KlasenS., LeT. T. N., PietersJ., & Santos SilvaM. (2021). What drives female labour force participation? Comparable micro-level evidence from eight developing and emerging economies. The Journal of Development Studies, 57(3), 417–442.
46.
KlasenS., & PietersJ. (2015). What explains the stagnation of female labor force participation in urban India?The World Bank Economic Review, 29(3), 449–478.
47.
KuglerA. D., & KumarS. (2017). Preference for boys, family size, and educational attainment in India. Demography, 54(3), 835–859.
48.
KumarM., & NaincyN. (2020). Revisiting the gender gap in private household expenditure on education in India: An empirical analysis. Paradigm, 24(2), 164–176.
49.
LuoL. (2013). Assessing validity and application scope of the intrinsic estimator approach to the age-period-cohort problem. Demography, 50(6), 1945–1967.
50.
MahapatroS. R. (2013). Changing trends in female labour force participation in India: An age-period-cohort analysis. Indian Journal of Human Development, 7(1), 83–107.
51.
MammenK., & PaxsonC. (2000). Women’s work and economic development. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 14(4), 141–164.
52.
MaroisG., ZhelenkovaE., & AliB. (2022). Labour force projections in India until 2060 and implications for the demographic dividend. Social Indicators Research, 164(1), 477–497.
53.
MasonK. O., MasonW. M., WinsboroughH. H., & PooleW. K. (1973). Some methodological issues in cohort analysis of archival data. American Sociological Review, 38, 242–258.
54.
MehrotraS. (2014). India’s skills challenge: Reforming vocational education and training to harness the demographic dividend. Oxford University Press.
55.
MehrotraS. (2016). Technical and vocational education in Asia: What can South Asia learn from East/South East Asia?The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, 59, 529–552.
56.
MehrotraS., & ParidaJ. K. (2019). India’s employment crisis: Rising education levels and falling non-agricultural job growth. Azim Premji University.
57.
MehrotraS., & ParidaJ. K. (2021). Stalled structural change brings an employment crisis in India. The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, 64(2), 281–308.
58.
MehrotraS., ParidaJ., SinhaS., & GandhiA. (2014). Explaining employment trends in the Indian economy: 1993–94 to 2011–12. Economic & Political Weekly, 49, 49–57.
59.
MehrotraS., & SinhaS. (2017). Explaining falling female employment during a high growth period. Economic & Political Weekly, 52, 54–62.
60.
MohantyS. (2021). A distributional analysis of the gender wage gap among technical degree and diploma holders in urban India. International Journal of Educational Development, 80, 102322.
61.
NITI Aayog. (2017). Report of the task force on improving employment data. Task force on improving employment data.
62.
NSSO. (2014). Employment and unemployment situation in India, 68th round, July 2011–June 2012. Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government of India.
63.
O’BrienR. M. (2000). Age period cohort characteristic models. Social Science Research, 29(1), 123–139.
64.
O’BrienR. M. (2014). Estimable functions in age-period-cohort models: A unified approach. Quality & Quantity, 48, 457–474.
65.
PandeR. (2013). Gender gaps and information and communication technology: A case study of India. In Digital literacy: Concepts, methodologies, tools, and applications (pp. 1425–1439). IGI Global.
66.
ParidaJ. K. (2016). MGNREGS, distress migration and livelihood conditions: A study in Odisha. Journal of Social and Economic Development, 18, 17–39.
67.
PellegrionG., D’AmatoS., & WeisbergA. (2011). The gender dividend: Making the business case for investing in women. Deloitte.
68.
PellisseryS., & JalanS. K. (2011). Towards transformative social protection: A gendered analysis of the Employment Guarantee Act of India (MGNREGA). Gender & Development, 19(2), 283–294.
69.
PLFS. (2019). Periodic labor force survey in India, 2017–18. Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government of India.
70.
RangarajanC., KaulP. I., & Seema. (2011). Where is the missing labour force?Economic & Political Weekly, 46, 68–72.
71.
ReddyD. N., ReddyA. A., & BantilanM. C. S. (2014). The impact of Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) on rural labor markets and agriculture. India Review, 13(3), 251–273.
72.
RodgersJ. (2012). Labour force participation in rural Bihar: A thirty-year perspective based on village surveys. Institute of Human Development.
73.
SchultzT. P. (1990). Women’s changing participation in the labor force: A world perspective. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 38(3), 457–488.
74.
SrinivasanK., & JamesK. S. (2015). The golden cage: Stability of the institution of marriage in India. Economic & Political Weekly, 50, 38–45.
75.
SrivastavaN., & SrivastavaR. (2010). Women, work, and employment outcomes in rural India. Economic & Political Weekly, 45, 49–63.
76.
TanakaS., & MuzonesM. (2016). Female labor force participation in Asia: Key trends, constraints, and opportunities. ADB.
77.
ThomasJ. J. (2012). India’s labour market during the 2000s: Surveying the changes. Economic & Political Weekly, 47, 39–51.
78.
ThoratS. (2010). Caste, exclusion, and marginalised groups in India: Dalit deprivation in India. In NikolopoulouA., AbrahamT., & MirbagheriF. (Eds.), Education for sustainable development: Challenges, strategies, and practices in a globalizing world (pp. 3–27). Sage Publications.
79.
Tunalıİ., KırdarM. G., & DayıoğluM. (2021). Down and up the “U”—A synthetic cohort (panel) analysis of female labor force participation in Turkey, 1988–2013. World Development, 146, 105609.
80.
VerickS. (2017). The paradox of low female labour force participation. International Labor Organization.
81.
VerickS. (2018). Female labor force participation and development. IZA World of Labor.
82.
VermaC., & DahiyaS. (2016). Gender difference towards information and communication technology awareness in Indian universities. SpringerPlus, 5(1), 370.
83.
YangY., FuW. J., & LandK. C. (2004). A methodological comparison of age-period-cohort models: The intrinsic estimator and conventional generalized linear models. Sociological Methodology, 34(1), 75–110.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
