The Puzzling Decline of Female Labour Force Participation in India and Its Prospects: An Age–Period–Cohort Approach

Abstract

This article attempts to disentangle the age–period–cohort (APC) effect of the puzzling decline in female labour force participation in India. The individual-level data obtained from the National Sample Survey (NSS) (1993–2018) have been put to use, and the maximum entropy approach has been adopted for analysis. This study reveals that the prime reproductive age of women largely contributes to determining female labour force participation in India, signifying a considerable influence of marriage and childbearing events on women’s working life. The results inform that rural, lower caste and low educated women have lower work participation rates, as against urban and higher educated women having a greater participation rate at a younger age. However, beyond the prime reproductive age, the participation rate of urban and higher educated women significantly declines, while the participation of rural, lower caste and low educated women tends to increase. The period 1999–2005 in particular depicts an adverse effect on female labour force participation across all population groups. But this period of adversity is maintained for rural and less educated women beyond 2005 as well, and is reversed for urban women and for those having secondary or higher levels of education. Furthermore, it is observed that the cohort effect (owing to declining fertility and better educational transition) does not display its expected role in inducing a rise in female labour force participation, contesting the prevailing sociocultural norms. In summary, this study observes that the APC effect is adverse for marginalised women, but a favourable prospect for higher educated and urban women. This study observes that age and period effects have a significant contribution to female labour participation in India. Besides, this study presents some salient features of women’s working life cycle behaviour that are highly relevant for policy discussions. The study concludes by arguing that generating investment in higher education and enabling an inclusive labour market with due consideration of women’s reproductive burden may help increase the female labour force participation rate (FLPR) in India.