Differentiated effects of physical,socioeconomic,and institutional drivers of urban sprawl in the metropolitan zone of San Luis Potosí–Soledad de Graciano Sánchez,Mexico

Abstract

Urban sprawl refers to the complex and dynamic growth of dispersed, low-density urban areas toward the peripheries of the cities. It increases land prices, raises infrastructure costs, and contributes to environmental degradation as well as social segregation. This study examined the spatial configuration and main drivers of urban sprawl in the Metropolitan Zone of San Luis Potosí–Soledad de Graciano Sánchez, Mexico, to determine trend-based projections up to 2050. A spatiotemporal analysis of land use and land cover change, as well as prospective scenarios modeling was conducted using GIS and cellular automata. A fragmented and accelerated pattern of urban growth was identified, driven by proximity to major road infrastructure and rural settlements. Peripheral communal lands have facilitated urban sprawl. Residential areas are expected to expand from 26,000 ha in 2024 to 36,276 ha by 2050, while industrial areas are projected to increase from 6,404 ha to 12,200 ha. Steep slopes, typically considered natural barriers to urban development, did not limit urban sprawl. In contrast, protected areas exhibited a strong capacity to contain urban growth. Cellular automata successfully replicated patterns of land-use change providing a robust basis for prospective scenarios development and urban planning support.

Graphical Abstract