Abstract
This study examines the determinants of commuting time and distance using the mobility situations framework in the Mexico City Metropolitan Zone (MCMZ), a megacity marked by spatial mismatch, socioeconomic segregation, and fragmented transport infrastructure. Using data from the 2017 Origin-Destination Survey, we classify 192 travel districts into four mobility situations—Short Commutes, Long Commutes, Travelscarps, and Wormholes—based on average commuting time and distance. Our approach combines spatial econometrics with a machine learning LASSO algorithm to evaluate 88 potential predictors across transport infrastructure, urban spatial structure, and socioeconomic conditions. Results show that each situation is driven by distinct factors: Short Commutes align with centrality and privilege; Long Commutes with exclusion and mass transit; Travelscarps with inefficient short trips from poor infrastructure; and Wormholes with efficient long trips through multimodal strategies. The study demonstrates the value of the mobility situations framework in a Global South city and highlights machine learning’s utility for variable selection and theory-building in journey-to-work research.
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