Spatial variations of the third and fourth COVID-19 waves in Hong Kong: A comparative study using built environment and socio-demographic characteristics

Abstract

Since the first confirmed case was reported in January 2020, Hong Kong has experienced multiple waves of COVID-19 outbreaks. Recent literature has explored the spatial patterns of disease incidence and their relationships with the built environment and demographic characteristics. Nonetheless, few studies aim at the comparative patterns of different epidemic waves occurring in the same spatial context. This study analyses spatial patterns of the third and fourth COVID-19 epidemic waves and then evaluates the spatial relationship between case incidence and built environment and socio-demographic characteristics. By collecting local-related cases, this study incorporates a two-fold analytical strategy: (1) Using rank-size distribution and log-odd ratio to depict the spatial pattern of COVID-19 incidence rates; (2) through global and local regression models, investigating incidence’s associations with the urban built environment and socio-demographic characteristics. The results reveal that the two different epidemic waves have far distinct spatial tendencies to their infection risk factors, reflecting location-specific associations with the built environments and socio-demographics. Collectively, we discover that the third and fourth COVID-19 waves are likely associated with residential context and urban activities, respectively. Practical implications are discussed that would be of interest to policymakers and health professionals.