An activity-based integrated land-use transport model for urban spatial distribution simulation

Abstract

This research develops an activity-based integrated land use/transport interaction model based on the concepts – activities (mainly, households and employment activities), activity location and relocation for Chinese regions. It consists of a residential and employment location sub-model, a transport sub-model and an implicit real estate rent adjustment sub-model. The model is developed to model the urban activity distribution evolution, predict urban spatial development trends and examine various planning decision implications. It spatially distributes household and employment activity change of a study area by zone based on the current activity distribution, land use policies and the accessibilities of the zones. The model is subsequently calibrated to predict the distribution of households and employment activities in Beijing metropolitan area in 2025. Model results show that the resident and employment densities are still high in central Beijing in 2025, and most zones’ resident densities are higher than their employment densities. However, there is also significant population density increase along the 6th ring road, indicating the relocation trend of the residents and businesses to the outskirts. This is consistent with the government objectives to decentralize activities within the central urban area. The paper also suggests that the model should be used mainly in examining the possible differences arising from the adoption of different policies though predicting future of a city distribution proves feasible.