How systemic imbalance shapes migration patterns

Abstract

It has been found that migration flows follow the power-law distribution in terms of travel distances, and this work testifies that the distributions of origins and destinations fit the power-law as well, based on data collected during 1949–2012 in China. A social network model is conceptually built to measure each county’s out-degree (origins) and in-degree (destinations). It shows that both the distributions of origins and destinations follow the power-law distribution, and they are in the middle range of verified power-law exponents. With socio-economic implications, the power-law exponent measures the unbalance of resources and opportunities. Since the beginning of the reform and opening-up policy, China has experienced a transition from a redistributive economy to a market economy, i.e. from a centralized state to a decentralized state. The market or economy mechanism brings vast and in-depth development in various fields, and therefore continually reduces this inequality in mainland China. As long as the market plays the core role in the economy, exponents of origins and destinations will decline gradually, and they will both increase when the market is interrupted or weakened after the global financial crisis (2008–9). The distribution of resources and opportunities governs the migration flows. The market mechanism facilitates the balanced distribution of resources and opportunities, and therefore renders the more balanced trend of migration flows in China.