Abstract
The concept of sustainability can be analyzed from different viewpoints, including sustaining a high rate without which other goals of a “good life,” particularly the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), are not achievable. Alternatively, the need for reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is employed to assess sustainability. This essay discusses economic progress in West Asia and North Africa (WANA) relative to other developing regions, its success in achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), and progress toward achieving the SDGs before discussing the region’s emissions of GHGs and CO2. The WANA region has performed relatively poorly economically and its performance has deteriorated since 2008, and the oil countries perform worse than nonoil ones. Low investment rates and worsening external balance bedevil its economic prospects. Prospects for the region achieving the SDGs are much worse than other regions and have become bleaker since COVID-19. The region is a relatively high emitter of GHGs.
Introduction
The concept of sustainability can be analyzed from different viewpoints. First, one can study the current economic situation and see the prospects for maintaining a high growth rate. Sustaining a high growth rate is important because other goals of a “good life” are not achievable without a high growth rate. Countries, or regions within a country, such as Cuba, Sri Lanka, and Kerala in India, may achieve enviable social progress for a period. But this tends to unravel after a while without economic growth. In particular, as one discusses the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), it is difficult to see how these can be achieved without sustained economic growth. Only economic growth can provide the resources needed to accomplish the SDGs.
Second, one can discuss the concept of sustainability from the viewpoint of climate change, contribution of current lifestyles to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and whether this lifestyle is sustainable. It is well known that the temperature increase since the Industrial Revolution’s onset must be restricted to 1.5°C for life to continue on the planet. To achieve this goal, emissions of GHGs must be limited.
This essay discusses economic progress in West Asia and North Africa (WANA) and contrasts it with the economic performance of WANA with that of the Gulf states. 1 It then analyzes the progress in achieving the goals accepted by the United Nations (UN) in 2000 in the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), though the goals were to be achieved by 2015. The essay further discusses the goals enunciated under the SDGs and what progress is being made to achieve them by 2030. Subsequently, it discusses sustainability from the viewpoint of the region’s contribution to climate warming through emissions of GHGs and CO2. The essay then examines the performance of the individual WANA countries and concludes with some tentative observations.
Economic Performance of WANA
As noted, growth is important to achieve other desirable goals. The WANA region has grown slower than other developing regions since the 2008 global financial crisis (Table 1). In the period after the crisis, 2011–2018, per capita GDP barely grew at 0.1 % a year. And after the onset of COVID-19, the per capita GDP has actually declined.
Growth of Per Capita GDP.
Achieving a high growth rate requires maintaining a high rate of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) or investment. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, WANA has maintained the second-lowest GFCF among the regions (Table 2) and the ratio has been falling.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (% of GDP).
The region has also experienced a large fall in the share of exports in goods and services in GDP (XGS) (Table 3). Thus, the external sector is not adding to the demand for the region’s goods. More importantly, the poor export performance implied that the external balance has deteriorated (Table 4).
Exports of Goods and Services (% of GDP).
External Balance (% of GDP).
The region has almost the largest external deficit as a percentage of GDP (Table 4). A deficit has to be financed by running down foreign exchange reserves or by borrowing. Since reserves cannot be indefinitely run down, and incessant borrowing could lead to a debt trap, the deficit has to be corrected. Usually, policies to correct the deficit tend to reduce the growth rate.
Comparative Performance of the Gulf States and the Oil States
In terms of performance, the Gulf area is almost the same as the oil states of WANA. Only Libya is included as an oil state but is not a Gulf state. Consequently, the comparative performance of the oil states and the Gulf states is similar (Table 5).
Comparative Performance of Gulf States and Oil States of WANA (% of GDP).
There is considerable fluctuation in the performance of the oil states and the Gulf states. The article compares their performances after the 2008 global financial crisis to undertake some comparative analysis. In 2011–2022, the per capita GDP has fallen in the Gulf states by 0.5% a year, while it has fallen by less in the oil states by 0.2% a year. However, the Gulf states have had a higher investment rate; 22.4% of GDP compared to 21.7% in the oil states, and have had a better external sector performance. The share of exports of goods and services in GDP (XGS) has averaged 57.2% in the Gulf states against 54.1% in the oil states, with the result that the external sector has, on average, had a surplus of 15.1% in the Gulf states as against a surplus of 14.0% in the oils states. This implies that despite the lower growth in the Gulf states, they have the potential to grow faster than the oil states.
In brief, growth rates in WANA have plummeted, and investment rates are low, higher only than Latin America and Caribbean (LAC). Furthermore, there is a decrease in the share of XGS, second only to the decrease in EAP. This decline has contributed to the substantial deterioration in the external balance. The low investment and worsening external balance imply that a high growth rate cannot be sustained. The Gulf states have grown slower than the oil states. But as their investment rates are higher and they perform better in the external sector, they can grow faster than the oil states.
Achievement of the MDGs 2
WANA, along with most other developing regions, achieved the goal of reducing poverty by half. On the other hand, as with other developing regions, there was hardly any reduction in malnutrition. The main goal of health was the reduction of mortality rates. Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) and under-five Mortality Rate (U5MR) (or Child Mortality Rate [CMR]) were to be reduced by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015, and the Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR) was to be reduced by three quarters. The region did not meet any of these goals. The article studies the rates of decrease of MMR, CMR, and IMR and takes the average mortality rates for 2001–2007 and 2011–2022 and the rate of change, that is, the rate of decrease between these two periods. WANA does well only in reducing MMR (Table 6). It has the second-worst performance in reducing IMR and the worst in reducing CMR.
Mortality Rates.
The poor performance of WANA in reducing mortality rates can partly be explained by the allocation of funds to the health sector. The essay calculates the average share of health expenditures in GDP in 2001–2007 and 2011–2022 and also calculates the percentage change between these two periods.
WANA has performed well regarding the amount of funds allocated to the health sector as a percentage of GDP (Table 7). It has the second-highest share among the regions, and the increase in the share going to the sector is also the second highest. The performance of per capita health expenditures, though less stellar, is not bad, as it has the third-highest per capita expenditure, though the increase in per capita expenditures is the second slowest (Table 7).
Health Expenditures.
Sustainable Development Goal 3
Goals 1 and 2 (Poverty and Hunger)
While the developing world is likely to meet the goal of poverty elimination, the situation has worsened since 2015. About 9.2% of the world population was facing chronic hunger, while an estimated 29.6% of the global population was moderately or severely food insecure and the goal of malnutrition seems unlikely to be met. Undernutrition manifests in four broad forms: wasting, stunting, underweight, and micronutrient deficiencies. 4 In the developing world, about 45 million children under five suffered from wasting, 148 million had stunted growth, and 37 million were overweight. In WANA, malnourished children declined marginally from 11.5 million in 2012 to 10.2 million in 2022, a rate not sufficient to achieve the SDG goal.
Goal 3 (Health)
There has been hardly any progress in reducing MMR in the developing world, with a marginal decline from 227 in 2015 to 223 in 2020. 5 This is because there is hardly any increase in assisted childbirth, namely childbirth under adequately trained supervision. Unfortunately, in WANA MMR increased from 90 to 94 between 2015 and 2022. Furthermore, there has been an alarming decline in child immunization, which has contributed to the slow reduction in infant and child mortality; child mortality fell from 29 to 26 and infant mortality from 15 to 13. The rate of decline in WANA has been the same as in the developing world as a whole. The region is off target in meeting HIV, malaria, and tuberculosis reduction goals.
Goal 4 (Education)
Completion rates at the primary and secondary levels have been rising, but at a rate too slow to achieve the SDG target, and COVID-19 has had a devastating effect on learning in about 80% of countries. WANA has lower completion rates than most other regions. Reading proficiency at primary levels has been improving at only 0.4% yearly, only a seventh of the rate required to meet the goal. Progress in expanding early school education has been slow; WANA has the second-slowest expansion rate among developing regions.
Goal 5 (Gender Equality)
With only seven years remaining, a mere 15.4% of Goal 5 indicators with data are “on track,” and 23.1% are far or very far off track from 2030 targets. Progress has been too slow: an estimated 300 years to end child marriage, 286 years to remove discriminatory laws, and 140 years for women to be represented equally in positions of power and leadership at work. WANA has been almost the worst in women’s representation in parliament and local government.
Goal 6 (Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene)
Access to drinking water, sanitation, and hygiene improved significantly in rural areas but stagnated or decreased in urban areas. There has been improved efficiency in water use in the developing world. But WANA lags in this, being second worst among developing regions. This slow progress is because of the region’s scarce rainfall.
Goal 7 (Energy)
Access to energy has been increasing in the developing world, and WANA does well in this area. However, about 660 million people in the developing world lack access to electricity, and almost 2 billion people will still rely on polluting fuels and technologies for cooking in 2030. There has been considerable progress toward meeting sustainable energy targets in the electricity sector, as renewable power supplies 30% of energy consumption. But challenges remain in the heating and transport sectors. Renewable energy installation in developing countries has grown rapidly at 9.6% annually. But international financial flows for clean energy continue to decline belying the SDG goal of partnership.
Goal 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth)
The incidence of informal employment had declined before the pandemic, falling from 58.6% in 2015 to 57.8% in 2019. COVID-19 has reversed this trend, with informal employment increasing slightly to 58.0% in 2022. The situation was most alarming in the least developed countries, where informal employment was 89.7% in 2022, with no improvement since 2015. WANA is one of the better-faring regions with lower levels of informality.
Goal 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure)
The achievements under this goal are mixed. The goal is to double the share of manufacturing. It seems unlikely that this target will be met. However, innovation may increase as research and development (R&D) expenditure has been rising. Also, net emissions per unit of GDP have been falling and over 95% of the population has access to at least 3G.
Goal 10 (Inequalities)
Broadly speaking, the goals are unlikely to be met. The favorable trend of incomes of the poorest 40% of the population growing faster than the national average seems to have been disrupted by COVID-19. WANA is third among five developing regions regarding the share of the poorest 40%. The pandemic has also caused the largest rise in between-country inequality in three decades. One in six people worldwide has experienced discrimination. The year 2022 witnessed the highest number of refugees (34.6 million people) ever documented. This year is also a deadly one for migrants, with nearly 7,000 deaths recorded globally.
Goals 11 to 17
The other goals do not provide measured indicators, so judging progress toward them is difficult. These goals are: Goal 11 (Sustainable Cities); Goal 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production); Goal 13 (Climate Action); Goal 14 (Life Below Water); Goal 15 (Life on Land); Goal 16 (Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions); and Goal 17 (Partnerships for the Goals). In brief, the prospects of achieving the SDGs were low before COVID-19, and there has been backsliding since the advent of the pandemic. WANA is usually at the bottom of the developing country regions in progress toward meeting the SDGs.
Sustainability: Contribution to GHG and CO2 Emissions
GHGs and CO2 emissions lead to climate warming. Suppose one ranks the developing regions according to the amounts of these gases they emit. In that case, it is found that the WANA region is the worst performer as far as emissions of CO2 per unit of GDP measured in 2015 US dollars are concerned (Table 8). It is also in the bottom half for other indicators, amount of CO2 emitted per capita and the growth of total emission of GHGs. By and large, the faster-growing economies of EAP and SA perform worse in terms of emissions, and the slower-growing economies perform better. This, of course, creates a dilemma.
Rank of Regions.
Countries of the Region
It is difficult from the ranks to conclude what leads to high growth rates. But some broad conclusions can be drawn. Of the five fastest-growing economies in WANA, three, Türkiye, the UAE, and Ethiopia, have either a high rate of investment or a good-performing external sector, while the other two, Egypt and Libya, have neither (Table 9). Of the worst-performing countries, Jordan, Lebanon, and Yemen perform poorly on both fronts, investment, and the external sector.
Rank by Various Macro Indicators.
One can broadly conclude that high investment rates or good export performance are necessary for achieving a high growth rate. Of the well-performing states, only one is an oil and Gulf state (UAE); of the poorly performing states, all three are nonoil and non-Gulf countries. One cannot simply say that oil and Gulf states are either among the best or worst performing states.
Further, the essay examines their performance in terms of MMR, IMR, and the CMR. It looks at the average 2001–2007 and 2011–2022 values and calculates the change between these two periods. Table 10 gives the mortality rate for the period 2011–2022 and the rank of the countries by the mortality rate; the lower the rate, the better the performance, and the higher the rank. It then depicts the percentage change in the rate; the greater the decrease, the higher the rank.
Various Mortality Indicators.
The countries with the lowest MMR, IMR, and CMR are Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia (Table 10). These are oil-producing states and belong to the Gulf area. Algeria and Iraq are among the worst three performing countries, and Morocco joins them for MMR and Syria for IMR and CMR. Thus, the nonoil countries form the majority of the worst performers. The majority are also non-Gulf countries.
As far as change in mortality rates is concerned, there is more change in the ranks. For instance, the best three for MMR are Egypt, Iran, and Morocco; for IMR are Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye; and for CMR are Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Türkiye. The majority in all cases are nonoil and non-Gulf countries. The worst three are Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Syria for MMR, Iraq, Kuwait, and Syria for IMR, and Iraq, Jordan, and Kuwait for CMR. The majority of the worst performers are oil countries and Gulf countries. In brief, the best performers are nonoil, non-Gulf countries, and the worst performers are oil and Gulf countries.
The level of health expenditures can partly explain the health performance. Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, all Gulf and oil states, have the lowest mortality rates and the highest expenditure levels per person (Table 11). The poor performance of the Gulf and oil states is obviously because the poor performance of the other countries in the group outweighs the good performance of these three countries. Algeria, Iraq, and Morocco perform the worst in mortality rates and have low health expenditures; the majority are nonoil and non-Gulf.
Rank According to Health Expenditures, 2012–2022 Per Capita PPP (Current International $) and Increase Between 2001–2007 and 2011–2022.
A question that arises is what explains the region’s poor performance. Some ascribe the poor performance to the region being conflict-driven, with many regional countries afflicted with internal instability and civil war over the years and many inter-state conflicts affecting several countries. Furthermore, WANA is not democratic, not even a flawed democracy. However, an analysis that ascribes its poor performance to political instability is difficult. For instance, in the case of Sub-Saharan Africa, fragile states performed better (Agarwal & Pirzada, 2015). Italy has had a high level of political instability in the West, with most governments being short-lived and yet its economic performance has been good. However, a meta-analysis that found no direct relation between democracy and growth did find strong indirect effects (Doucouliapos & Ulubasoglu, 2008). They found that democracies are associated with higher human capital accumulation and lower inflation. Analysts have found that democracies have 50% higher growth rates than nondemocracies if one leaves the Southeast Asian countries from the analysis (Carnegie Council, 2006). However, Muddassir Quamar (2022), in the introduction to his book (pp. 1–14), discusses the turmoil in the region following the Arab Spring, the betrayal of democratic hopes, and the poor economic performance.
Conclusions
The WANA region has performed worse regarding economic macro indicators than other developing regions. Its performance has relatively deteriorated since the 2008 global financial crisis. If the region is divided into oil and nonoil countries, the oil countries perform worse (the Gulf countries are similar to the oil countries as only Libya, an oil state, is excluded from the Gulf area). With low investment rates and a worsening external balance, prospects for a good performance are not high. Regarding the SDGs, prospects for the region’s achievement are much worse than for other regions. Prospects have become bleaker since COVID-19. The poor performance in the health sector can be ascribed to low levels of health expenditures. The lack of democratic regimes plays a part in this poor performance.
Footnotes
Declaration of Conflicting Interests
The author declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship and/or publication of this article.
Funding
The author received no financial support for the research, authorship and/or publication of this article.
Acknowledgment
The author would like to thank the participants of the seminar held at the Centre for West Asia Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, on October 26, 2023 for helpful comments. Of course, the responsibility for the essay remains of the author.