Multi-Trillion Dollar and Multi-Million Worker Contributions: An Economic Accounting of Birthright Citizenship

Abstract

Executive Summary

With the Trump administration’s recent executive order attempting to eliminate birthright citizenship for children born in the U.S. to two undocumented or temporary (nonimmigrant visa holder) immigrants, litigators have been actively arguing against the order, with every case in lower courts finding it to be illegal. Consequently, the Supreme Court is hearing the government’s case in 2026. In light of these events, this paper seeks to provide a set of baseline estimates describing the economic contribution of beneficiaries of birthright citizenship.

Based on established demographic and economic methods, we estimate that beneficiaries of birthright citizenship will have contributed $7.7 trillion to the U.S. economy through their income between 1975 and 2074, including a projected $1 trillion by future children not yet born and whose economic contribution would be most at risk under the implementation of the Trump administration’s executive order. Additionally, the U.S. workforce will have benefited from 3.1 million workers between 1975 and 2074, with 2.1 million working in occupations typically requiring some college education, a level of attainment that would have been highly improbable for these workers without U.S. citizenship. In fact, among future children not yet born, we estimate a potential loss of 400,000 workers in occupations typically requiring some college education.

The estimates are based on three groups of U.S.-born individuals born to two undocumented or temporary immigrants totalling 3.9 million beneficiaries: (i) current working-age adults, (ii) current children, and (iii) future children. The estimates are based on data drawn from U.S. Census Bureau surveys. Our estimates can be considered conservative as they only take into account U.S.-born individuals in the U.S. for whom both parents are undocumented or temporary immigrants, and were also living in the U.S. as of 2024. The total economic contributions we estimate vary across the country. These contributions are particularly high in the American West, led by California and Arizona, and in the South, led by Texas and Florida.

Further research should examine the economic premium of birthright citizenship compared with a scenario where the beneficiaries lose legal status. Similarly, the full fiscal impact of birthright citizenship could be examined. This paper’s goal, however, is to provide an initial set of baseline estimates establishing the economic contribution of beneficiaries of birthright citizenship that have already materialized or are expected to materialize under current birthright citizenship practice.