This article draws on a sample of recent legislative elections held in 43 countries of Sub-Saharan Africa in order to empirically estimate and explain the levels of party system nationalisation. The analysis demonstrates that the overall level of party system nationalisation in Africa is relatively low, but in this respect, Africa displays little difference from other developing regions of the eastern hemisphere. Within the set of explanatory variables, an important role is played by ethno-linguistic fractionalisation. However, the explanatory power of this factor is rather limited. A model of party system nationalisation, including electoral system effects, party system fragmentation and political regime characteristics, such as authoritarianism and presidentialism, is proposed and empirically validated. The model demonstrates that while the joint impact of the identified explanatory factors is strong and consistent, none of them can be singled out as the crucial determinant of party system nationalisation in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Amorim NetoOCoxGW (1997) Electoral institutions, cleavage structures and the number of parties. American Journal of Political Science41(1): 149–174.
2.
AndersonML (2000) Practicing Democracy: Elections and Political Culture in Imperial Germany. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
3.
ArriolaL (2013) Multiethnic Coalitions in Africa: Business Financing of Opposition Election Campaigns. New York: Cambridge University Press.
4.
BasedauMErdmannGLayJ. (2011) Ethnicity and party preference in sub-Saharan Africa. Democratization18(2): 462–489.
5.
BasedauMStrohA (2012) How ethnic are African parties really? Evidence from Francophone Africa. International Political Science Review33(1): 5–24.
6.
BenoitK (2001) District magnitude, electoral formula, and the number of parties. European Journal of Political Research39(2): 203–224.
7.
BochslerD (2010a) Measuring party nationalization: a new Gini-based indicator that corrects for the number of units. Electoral Studies29(1): 155–168.
8.
BochslerD (2010b) The nationalization of post-communist party systems. Europe-Asia Studies62(5): 807–827.
9.
BogaardsM (2004) Counting parties and identifying dominant party systems in Africa. European Journal of Political Research43(2): 173–197.
10.
BogaardsM (2008) Dominant party systems and electoral volatility in Africa: A comment on Mozaffar and Scarritt. Party Politics14(1): 113–130.
11.
BogaardsMElischerSBecherA (2014) Ethnic party bans in Africa: Can party regulation create national parties? In: BertrandJHaklaiO (eds) Democratization and Ethnic Minorities: Conflict or Compromise?London: Routledge, pp.39–57.
12.
BollenKAPaxtonP (2000) Subjective measures of liberal democracy. Comparative Political Studies33(1): 58–86.
13.
BramborTClarkWRGolderM (2007) Are African party systems different?Electoral Studies26(2): 315–323.
14.
BrancatiD (2008) The origins and strength of regional parties. British Journal of Political Science38(1): 135–159.
CaramaniD (2004) The Nationalization of Politics: The Formation of National Electorates and Party Systems in Western Europe. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
17.
Castenada-AngaritaN (2013) Party system nationalization, presidential coalitions, and government spending. Electoral Studies32(4): 783–794.
18.
ChhibberPKKollmanK (2004) The Formation of National Party Systems: Federalism and Party Competition in Canada, Great Britain, India, and the United States. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
19.
ColomerJM (2007) On the origins of electoral systems and political parties: the role of elections in multi-member districts. Electoral Studies26(2): 262–273.
20.
CoxGW (1997) Making Votes Count: Strategic Coordination in the World’s Electoral Systems. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
21.
CoxGWMcCubbinsMD (2001) The institutional determinants of policy outcomes. In: HaggardSMcCubbinsMD (eds) Presidents, Parliaments and Policy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp.21–63.
22.
CrookRC (1997) Winning coalitions and ethno-regional politics: The failure of the opposition in the 1990 and 1995 elections in Côte d’Ivoire. African Affairs96(383): 215–242.
23.
DesmetKOrtuño-OrtinIWeberS (2009) Linguistic diversity and redistribution. Journal of the European Economic Association7(6): 1291–1318.
DoorenspleetRNijzinkL (eds) (2014) Party Systems and Democracy in Africa. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.
26.
ElischerS (2013) Political Parties in Africa: Ethnicity and Party Formation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
27.
ErdmannGBasedauM (2008) Party systems in Africa: Problems of categorising and explaining party systems. Journal of Contemporary African Studies26(3): 241–258.
28.
FearonJ (2003) Ethnic and cultural diversity by country. Journal of Economic Growth8(2):195–222.
29.
FeldSLGrofmanB (2007) The Laakso-Taagepera index in a mean and variance framework. Journal of Theoretical Politics19(1): 101–106.
30.
FranckRRainerI (2012) Does the leader’s ethnicity matter? Ethnic favoritism, education and health in Sub-Saharan Africa. American Political Science Review106(2): 294–325.
GibsonELSuarez-CaoJ (2010) Federalized party systems and subnational party competition: theory and an empirical application to Argentina. Comparative Politics43(1): 21–39.
33.
GolderM (2006) Presidential coattails and legislative fragmentation. American Journal of Political Science50(1): 34–48.
34.
GolosovGV (2010) The effective number of parties: a new approach. Party Politics16(2): 171–192.
35.
GolosovGV (2013) Authoritarian party systems: Patterns of emergence, sustainability and survival. Comparative Sociology12(5): 617–644.
36.
GolosovGV (2014a) Party system nationalization: The problems of measurement with an application to federal states. Party Politics. Epub ahead of print 9 September 2014. DOI: 10.1177/1354068814549342.
37.
GolosovGV (2014b) Factors of party system nationalization. International Political Science Review. Epub ahead of print 23 October 2014. DOI: 10.1177/0192512114552864.
38.
GreeneKF2007. Why Dominant Parties Lose: Mexico’s Democratization in Comparative Perspective. New York: Cambridge University Press.
39.
HarbersI (2010) Decentralization and the development of nationalized party systems in new democracies: Evidence from Latin America. Comparative Political Studies43(5): 606–627.
40.
HickenAKuhontaEM (2011) Shadows from the past: Party system institutionalization in Asia. Comparative Political Studies44(5): 572–597.
41.
HorowitzD (2000) Ethnic Groups in Conflict. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.
42.
HuntingtonSP (1968) Political Order in Changing Societies. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
43.
JonesMP (1994) Presidential election laws and multipartism in Latin America. Political Research Quarterly47(1): 41–57.
44.
JonesMPMainwaringS (2003) The nationalization of parties and party systems: An empirical measure and an application to the Americas. Party Politics9(2): 139–166.
45.
JuppJ (1971) Political parties in non-Communist Asia. Political Studies19(3): 284–293.
46.
KasuyaYMoeniusJ (2008) The nationalization of party systems: conceptual issues and alternative district-focused measures. Electoral Studies27(1): 126–135.
47.
KatzR (1980) A Theory of Parties and Party Systems. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
48.
KennedyP (1992) A Guide to Econometrics. Oxford: Blackwell.
49.
KuenziMLambrightG (2001) Party system institutionalization in 30 African countries. Party Politics7(4): 437–468.
50.
KuenziMLambrightG (2005) Party systems and democratic consolidation in Africa’s electoral regimes. Party Politics11(4): 423–446.
51.
LaaksoMTaageperaR (1979) ‘Effective’ number of parties: a measure with application to West Europe. Comparative Political Studies12(1): 3–27.
52.
Lago-PeñasILago-PeñasS (2011) Decentralization and the nationalization of party systems. Environment and Planning C: Government and Policy29(2): 244–263.
53.
LeBasA (2011) From Protest to Parties: Party-Building and Democratization in Africa. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
54.
LiebermanESMcClendonGH (2013) The ethnicity-policy preference link in sub-Saharan Africa. Comparative Political Studies46(5): 574–602.
55.
LindbergS (2006) Democracy and Elections in Africa. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
56.
LindbergS (2007) Institutionalization of party systems? Stability and fluidity among legislative parties in Africa’s democracies. Government and Opposition42(2): 215–241.
57.
LindbergSMorrisonM (2008) Are African voters really ethnic or clientelistic? Survey evidence from Ghana. Political Science Quarterly123(1): 95–122.
58.
LoweryDOtjesSGherghinaS. (2010) Unpacking LogM: Toward a more general theory of party system density. American Journal of Political Science54(4): 921–935.
59.
MagaloniB (2006) Voting for Autocracy: Hegemonic Party Survival and Its Demise in Mexico. New York: Cambridge University Press.
60.
MannM (2005) The Dark Side of Democracy: Explaining Ethnic Cleansing. New York: Cambridge University Press.
61.
MorgensternSPolga-HecimovichJSiavelisPM (2014) Seven imperatives for improving the measurement of party nationalization with evidence from Chile. Electoral Studies33(1): 186–199.
62.
MorgensternSSwindleSMCastagnolaA (2009) Party nationalization and institutions. Journal of Politics71(4): 1322–1341.
63.
MorrisonMJawH (2006) Ghana’s political parties: how ethno/regional variations sustain the national two-party system. Journal of Modern African Studies44(4): 623–647.
64.
MozaffarSScarrittJR (2005) The puzzle of African party systems. Party Politics11(4): 399–421.
65.
MozaffarSScarrittJRGalaichG (2003) Electoral institutions, ethnopolitical cleavages, and party systems in Africa’s emerging democracies. American Political Science Review97(3): 379–390.
66.
MunckGLVerkuilenJ (2002) Conceptualizing and measuring democracy: Evaluating alternative indices. Comparative Political Studies35(1): 5–34.
67.
MylonasHRoussiasN (2008) When do votes count? Regime type, electoral conduct, and political competition in Africa. Comparative Political Studies41(11): 1466–1491.
68.
OrdeshookPCShvetsovaOV (1994) Ethnic heterogeneity, district magnitude, and the number of parties. American Journal of Political Science38(1): 100–123.
69.
PosnerDN (2005) Institutions and Ethnic Politics in Africa. New York: Cambridge University Press.
70.
PowellGB (1982) Contemporary Democracies: Participation, Stability, and Violence. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
71.
RaeDW (1967) The Political Consequences of Electoral Laws. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
72.
RaknerLSvåsandL (2013) Competition and participation, but no democracy: The politics of elections in Africa’s feckless regimes. Statsvetenskaplig tidskrifts arkiv115(4): 365–384.
73.
RandallVSvåsandL (2002) Introduction: The contribution of parties to democracy and democratic consolidation. Democratization9(3): 1–10.
74.
RiedlRB (2014) Authoritarian Origins of Democratic Party Systems in Africa. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
75.
RiedlRBDickovickJT (2014) Party systems and decentralization in Africa. Studies in Comparative International Development49(3): 321–342.
76.
RoddenJWibbelsE (2011) Dual accountability and the nationalization of party competition: evidence from four federations. Party Politics17(5): 629–653.
77.
SchakelAH (2013) Nationalization of multilevel party systems: A conceptual and empirical analysis. European Journal of Political Research52(2): 212–236.
78.
ShugartMS (1995) The electoral cycle and institutional sources of divided presidential government. American Political Science Review89(2): 327–343.
79.
StokesDE (1967) Parties and the nationalization of electoral forces. In: ChambersWNBurnhamWD (eds) The American Party Systems: States of Political Development. New York: Oxford University Press, pp.182–202.
80.
TaageperaRGrofmanB (2003) Mapping the indices of seats–votes disproportionality and inter-election volatility. Party Politics9(6): 659–677.
81.
TaageperaRRayJL (1977) A generalized index of concentration. Sociological Methods and Research5(3): 367–384.
82.
TaageperaShugartMS (1989) Seats and Votes: The Effects and Determinants of Electoral Systems. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
83.
TiemannG (2012) The nationalization of political parties and party systems in post-communist Eastern Europe. Communist and Post-Communist Studies45(1–2): 77–89.
84.
Van deWalleN (2003) Presidentialism and clientelism in Africa’s emergent party systems. Journal of Modern African Studies41(2): 297–321.
85.
WahmanM (2014) Electoral coordination in Anglophone Africa. Commonwealth and Comparative Politics52(2): 187–211.
86.
WahmanM (2015) Nationalized incumbents and regional challengers: Opposition- and incumbent-party nationalization in Africa. Party Politics. Epub ahead of print 23 July 2015. DOI: 10.1177/1354068815596515.
87.
WeghorstKRBernhardM (2014) From formlessness to structure? The institutionalization of competitive party systems in Africa. Comparative Political Studies47(12): 1707–1737.
88.
Williams-WycheS (2014) An empirical test of presidentialism’s effect on party competition. Electoral Studies33: 166–174.
