Global and regional orders in the 21st century in terms of multi-layered power transition theory: The cases of US–China and China–Japan relations

Abstract

In this article I analyze double-layered power struggles from a power transition perspective. This study compares the case of global power transition between the US and China linked to a case of regional power transition between China and Japan. US–China relations in the global order have been more cooperative than China–Japan relations in the regional order since the beginning of this century. The question is about how the two cases interact with respect to each other.

The first scenario shows that stability in the global order deters instability in the regional order. The US–China partnership stabilizes China–Japan conflictual relations. In this situation the US, China and Japan maintain status quo policies and regional order is stabilized. The second scenario is one in which instability in the regional order overwhelms stability in the global order. In this situation China and Japan accelerate their hegemonic struggles in Northeast Asia, and the US serves to mediate between China and Japan. The US should be making a decision as to what kind of diplomatic stance it will take to minimize the tension between China and Japan. The US must also make its own world strategy. China is more likely to be a status quo power in the global order, but a challenger in breaking down the status quo in Northeast Asia. However, the US role is critical in making this power transition stable or unstable.