From the summer of 1997 through summer 1999, Thailand's economy took a steep plunge into recession and economic collapse. Only in the third-quarter of 1999, did the economy give signs of a fragile, if hesitant recovery. Almost immediately the International Monetary Fund(IMF) took credit, arguing that its policies and programs were finally producing results. How valid is this claim. This paper argues that the IMF policies by itself cannot explain the recovery. Indeed, if the Thai government continued to follow the IMF's orthodox prescriptions, it would have dragged the economy further into crisis. Rather, it is argued that the Chuan administration deserves much credit for the recovery. By rejecting some of the IMF's mis-guided policies and by its effective management of the crisis, the Chuan government laid the basis for a gradual and sustained recovery.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
AlbaPedroHernandezLeonardoKlingebielDaniela (1999). Financial Liberalization and the Capital Account: Thailand 1988–1997, World Bank: Washington, D.C.
2.
Bank of Thailand (1998a). Financial Institutions and Markets in Thailand. Economic Research Department, November
3.
Bank of Thailand (1998b). “Focus on the Thai Crisis,”Economic Focus, Vol. 2, No. 2, April-June, 1–42
4.
Bank of Thailand (1998c). “Asset Price Inflation: Developments and Policy Issues,”Economic Focus, Vol. 2, No. 1, January-March, 1–22
5.
Bank of Thailand (1996a). “Analyzing Thailand's Current Account Deficit,”Economic Focus, vol. 1, No. 1. January-March, 1–27
6.
Bank of Thailand (1996b). “Analyzing Thailand's Short-Term Debt,”Economic Focus, vol. 1, No. 3. July-September, 1–26
7.
Bank of Thailand (1996c). “Economic Performance in 1996 and Outlook in 1997,”Bank of Thailand Quarterly Bulletin. vol. 36, No. 4, December
8.
Bank of Thailand (1995). “Thailand's Current Account Deficit,”Economic Focus, vol. 1, No. 1, October-December
9.
Bank of Thailand (1992). Fifty Years of the Bank of Thailand: 1942–1992, Bangkok, Thailand: Bank of Thailand
10.
BlusteinPaul (2001). The Chastening: Inside the Crisis that Rocked the Global Financial System and Humbled the IMF, New York: Public Affairs
ChandaNayan (1998). “Rebuilding Asia,” in Dan Biers (ed) Crash of ′97: How the Financial Crisis is Reshaping Asia, Hong Kong: Review Publishing Company, 8–17
DollarDavidHallward-DriemeierMary (2000). “Crisis, Adjustment and Reform in Thailand's Industrial Firms,”The World Bank Research Observer, vol. 15, No. 1, February, 1–22
16.
FlattersFrank (2000). “Thailand and the Crisis: Roots, Recovery and Long-Run,” in WooWing ThyeSachsJeffreySchwabKlaus (eds) The Asian Financial Crisis: Lessons for a Resilient Asia. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press, 257–274
HaggardStephan (2000). The Political Economy of the Asian Financial Crisis. Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics
22.
HaggardStephanMacIntyreAndrew (1998). “The Political-Economy of the Asian Economic Crisis,”Review of International Political Economy, vol. 53, No. 1, Autumn, 381–392
23.
IMF (2000). Thailand: Selected Issues. IMF Staff Country Report, No. 00/21, Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund
LaothamatasAnek (1996). “A Tale of Two Democracies: Conflicting Perceptions of Elections and Democracy in Thailand,” in TaylorR.H. (ed) The Politics of Elections in Southeast Asia, New York: Cambridge University Press
26.
LauridsenLaurids (1998). “Thailand: Causes, Conduct, Consequences,” in JomoK.S., (ed) Tigers in Trouble: Financial Governance, Liberalization and Crises in East Asia, New York: Zed Press
27.
LindgrenCarl-JohanBalinoTomas EnochGuideCharles QuintynAnne-MarieMarcTeoLeslie (1999). Financial Sector Crisis and Restructuring: Lessons from Asia. IMF Occasional Paper 188. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund
28.
MahmoodMoazam ans Gosah Aryah (2001). “The Labor Market and Labor Policy in a Macroeconomic Context: Growth, Crisis and Competitiveness in Thailand,” in BetchermanGordonIslamRizwanul (eds) East Asian Labor Markets and the Economic Crisis: Impacts, Responses and Lessons. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, 245–292
29.
NabiIjazShivakumarJayasankar (2001). Back from the Brink: Thailand's Response to the 1997 Economic Crisis. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank
30.
NidhiprabhaBhanupongWarrG.Peter (2000). “Thailand's Experience with Reform in the Financial Sector,” in DrysdalePeter (ed) Reform and Recovery in East Asia: The Role of the State and Economic Enterprise, New York: Routledge, 99–119
31.
NidhiprabhaBhanupong (1999). “Economic Crises and the Debt-Deflation Episode in Thailand,” in ArndtH. W.HillHal (eds) Southeast Asia's Economic Crisis: Origins, Lessons and the Way Forward. Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. 67–80
32.
NidhiprabhaBhanupong (1998). “Adverse Consequences of Capital Inflows and Thailand's Optimal Policy Mix,” in Van denbrink KwanC. H. DonnaYueChia Siow, (eds) Coping with Capital Flows in East Asia. Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 192–219
33.
OECD (1999). Asia and the Global Crisis: The Industrial Dimension. Paris: OECD Phongpaichit, Pasuk and Baker, Chris (2001) “Thailand?s Crisis: Neo-Liberal Agenda and Local Reaction,” in ChangHa-JoonGabrielPalmaWhittakerD. Hugh (eds) Financial Liberalization and the Asian Crisis, New York: Palgrave Publishers, 82–101
34.
OECD (2000). Thailand's Crisis, Chiang Mai, Thailand: Silkworm Books
35.
OECD (1999). “The Political Economy of the Thai Crisis,”Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, vol. 4, No. 1, 193–208
36.
OECD (1998). Thailand's Boom and Bust. Chiang Mai, Thailand: Silkworm Books
37.
SachsJeffrey (1997). “Personal View,”Financial Times, 30 July
38.
SenderHenry (1997). “The Devil to Pay,”Far Eastern Economic Review, June 5, 50–58
39.
SenderHenryLeeCharles (1998). “Rotten to the Core,”Far Eastern Economic Review, 2 April, 14–16
40.
VajraguptaYosVichyanondPakorn (1999). “Thailand's Financial Evolution and the 1997 Crisis,” in MasuyamaSeiichiVandenbrinkDonnaYueChia Siow (eds) East Asia's Financial System: Evolution and Crisis. Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies
41.
WarrPeter G. (1998). “Thailand,” in McLeodRoss H.GarnautRoss, (eds) East Asia in Crisis, London: Routledge
42.
WarrPeter G.NidhiprabhaBhanupong (1996). Thailand's Economic Miracle: Stable Adjustment and Sustained Growth, Washington, D.C.: The World Bank
