Atypical Visual Motion-Prediction Abilities in Autism Spectrum Disorder

Abstract

A recent theory posits that prediction deficits may underlie the core symptoms in autism spectrum disorder (ASD). However, empirical evidence for this hypothesis is minimal. Using a visual extrapolation task, we tested motion-prediction abilities in children and adolescents with and without ASD. We examined the factors known to be important for motion prediction: the central-tendency response bias and smooth-pursuit eye movements. In participants with ASD, response biases followed an atypical trajectory that was dominated by early responses. This differed from control participants, who exhibited response biases that reflected a gradual accumulation of knowledge about stimulus statistics. Moreover, although better smooth-pursuit eye movements for the moving object were linked to more accurate motion prediction in control participants, in participants with ASD, better smooth pursuit was counterintuitively linked to a more pronounced early-response bias. Together, these results demonstrate atypical visual prediction abilities in people with ASD and offer insights into possible mechanisms underlying the observed differences.