Anxiety Modulates Preference for Immediate Rewards Among Trait-Impulsive Individuals: A Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis

Abstract

Trait impulsivity—defined by strong preference for immediate over delayed rewards and difficulties inhibiting prepotent behaviors—is observed in all externalizing disorders, including substance-use disorders. Many laboratory tasks have been developed to identify decision-making mechanisms and correlates of impulsive behavior, but convergence between task measures and self-reports of impulsivity are consistently low. Long-standing theories of personality and decision-making predict that neurally mediated individual differences in sensitivity to (a) reward cues and (b) punishment cues (frustrative nonreward) interact to affect behavior. Such interactions obscure one-to-one correspondences between single personality traits and task performance. We used hierarchical Bayesian analysis in three samples with differing levels of substance use (N = 967) to identify interactive dependencies between trait impulsivity and state anxiety on impulsive decision-making. Our findings reveal how anxiety modulates impulsive decision-making and demonstrate benefits of hierarchical Bayesian analysis over traditional approaches for testing theories of psychopathology spanning levels of analysis.

Keywords

substance use impulsivity anxiety delay discounting Bayesian statistics open data

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