Causal knowledge has been shown to affect diagnostic decisions. It is unclear, however, how causal knowledge affects diagnosis. We hypothesized that it influences intuitive reasoning processes. More precisely, we speculated that people automatically assess the coherence between observed symptoms and an assumed causal model of a disorder, which in turn affects diagnostic classification. Intuitive causal reasoning was investigated in an experimental study. Participants were asked to read clinical reports before deciding on a diagnosis. Intuitive processing was studied by analyzing reading times. It turned out that reading times were slower when causally expected consequences of present symptoms were missing or effects of absent causes were present. This causal incoherence effect was predictive of participants’ later explicit diagnostic judgments. These and related findings suggest that diagnostic judgments rely on automatic reasoning processes based on the computation of causal coherence. Potential implications of these results for the training of clinicians are discussed.
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