Identifying and Predicting Multiple Trajectories of Alcohol Dependence Symptoms in a Canadian Sample of Emerging Adults

Abstract

Working with data from the Manitoba Longitudinal Study of Young Adults (four cycles over 4 years; mean baseline age of 18.9 years), this study used latent class growth analysis to identify four alcohol dependence trajectory classes—low, decreasing (nondependence); high, decreasing (developmentally limited); low, increasing (adult onset); and persistently class were also identified: Being male, illicit drug use, stressful life events, impulsivity, and escape-avoidance coping style were all associated with increased probability of being in the more symptomatic trajectory classes, while self-esteem was associated with increased probability of being in the low symptom class. The results are discussed in relation to the issue of multifinality and implications for diagnoses, treatment, and prevention.