Hiding Injustice: How Risk Factor-Based Assessments Individualize Group-Level Exposure to Violence,Health Disparities,and Unmet Needs

Abstract

Risk factor-based assessments classify and manage young people involved in juvenile legal systems. They inform various decisions, from identifying youth for targeted prevention programs for determining pretrial release, carceral security levels, and eligibility for rehabilitative interventions. By evaluating individuals’ criminogenic risk and needs profiles, the approach aims to predict the likelihood of recidivism, noncompliance, and failure in diversion programs, shaping key outcomes at multiple stages of the legal process. Advocates assert that these tools enhance efficiency and objectivity at crucial legal decision-making stages; however, scholars across multiple disciplines have raised critical concerns about the fairness, inherent biases and challenges, and significant differences in mean scores among youth in predicting future outcomes through risk factor-based approaches. This paper builds on existing critiques by demonstrating how risk factor-based assessments inadvertently—but systematically—individualize differential group exposures to violence, health disparities, and unmet needs, thereby obscuring their deep-rooted connections to racial identity and geographic location. As a result, youth from specific demographic groups and geographic areas exhibit disproportionately higher baseline risk levels, which inevitably influence carceral decision-making. These disparities subsequently reinforce and exacerbate existing inequalities in system contact, judicial processing, and punitive outcomes, further entrenching structural disadvantage.