Children’s Heart Assessment Tool for Transplantation (CHAT) Score: A Novel Risk Score Predicts Survival After Pediatric Heart Transplantation

Abstract

Background:

Given the shortage of donor organs in pediatric heart transplantation (HTx), pretransplant risk stratification may assist in organ allocation and recipient optimization. We sought to construct a scoring system to preoperatively stratify a patient’s risk of one-year mortality after HTx.

Methods:

The United Network for Organ Sharing database was queried for pediatric (<18 years) patients undergoing HTx between 2000 and 2016. The population was randomly divided in a 4:1 fashion into derivation and validation cohorts. A multivariable logistic regression model for one-year mortality was constructed within the derivation cohort. Points were then assigned to independent predictors (P < .05) based on relative odds ratios (ORs). Risk groups were established based on easily applicable, whole-integer score cutoffs.

Results:

A total of 5,700 patients underwent HTx; one-year mortality was 10.7%. There was a similar distribution of variables between derivation (n = 4,560) and validation (n = 1,140) cohorts. Of the 12 covariates included in the final model, nine were allotted point values. The low-risk (score 0-9), intermediate-risk (10-20), and high-risk (>20) groups had a 5.18%, 10%, and 28% risk of one-year mortality (P < .001), respectively. Both intermediate-risk (OR = 2.46, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.93-3.15; P < .001) and high-risk (OR = 9.24, 95% CI: 6.92-12.35; P < .001) scores were associated with an increased risk of one-year mortality when compared to the low-risk group.

Conclusions:

The Children’s Heart Assessment Tool for Transplantation score represents a pediatric-specific, recipient-based system to predict one-year mortality after HTx. Its use could assist providers in identification of patients at highest risk of poor outcomes and may aid in pretransplant optimization of these children.

Keywords

pediatrics heart transplantation

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