Time pressures under international crises reconsidered: Integrating real and experimental time

Abstract

This study discusses the relationship between the time pressure faced by policymakers when an international military-security crisis breaks out and the consequences of the crisis. If a policy is decided too quickly, decision-makers do not have the ability to consider enough alternatives and information, which lowers the chances of averting a crisis. Moreover, if too much time is taken in deliberating, an international crisis may heat up and the chance to potentially come up with an optimal policy at the right time may be missed. The article takes a mixed methods approach using quantitative data and three case studies. The International Crisis Behavior (ICB, version 13) dataset was used to identify the time spent in making policy decisions to respond to an international crisis and the consequences of the crisis, for the period 1918–2013. Also, three actual international crises were analyzed: Russia's annexation of Crimea and Donbas, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the Korean War. The quantitative results and the case analyses indicate that a third alternative, a medium time span, allows for careful deliberation and sufficient information gathering to occur, and decision-makers may thereby avoid an international crisis.