China has long represented a puzzle for scholars of democracy, who view political trust as an important indicator of regime legitimacy. Previous studies show that while democracies around the world experienced declining levels of political trust, the authoritarian Chinese government maintained unexpectedly high levels of trust. Using World Value Survey (WVS) data over a critical 12-year period (2001–2012) and multilevel modeling techniques, we explore both macro- and individual-level determinants of political trust in China. We find that province-level economic performance and individual-level income combine to influence political trust. Higher levels of individual-level income have a positive effect on trust in more developed provinces but an opposite effect in less developed provinces. Furthermore, individuals living in provinces with higher levels of inequality and openness tend to be less trusting of government. Our study offers critical insights not only for political trust in China but also the country’s political future.
AlmondGVerbaS (1963) The Civic Culture. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
2.
AndersonCJSingerMM (2008) The sensitive left and the impervious right: Multilevel models and the politics of inequality, ideology, and legitimacy in Europe. Comparative Political Studies41(4/5): 564–599.
3.
CatterbergGMorenoA (2005) The individual bases of political trust: Trends in new and established democracies. International Journal of Public Opinion Research18(1): 31–48.
4.
ChenJZhongYHillardJW (1997) The level and sources of popular support for China’s current political regime. Communist and Post-Communist Studies30(1): 45–64.
5.
ChenXShiT (2001) Media effects on political confidence and trust in the People’s Republic of China in the post-Tiananmen period. East Asia: An International Quarterly19(3): 84–118.
6.
DahlbergSHolmbergSRothsteinB. (2016) The Quality of Government Basic Dataset. Gothenburg: The Quality of Government Institute, University of Gothenburg. Available at: http://www.qog.pol.gu.se (accessed 3 October 2016).
7.
DaltonRJ (2004) Democratic Challenges, Democratic Choices. New York: Oxford University Press.
8.
DaltonRJOngNT (2006) Authority orientations and democratic attitudes: A test of the ‘Asian values’ hypothesis. In: DaltonRJShinDC (eds) Citizens, Democracy and Markets Around the Pacific Rim. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 97–112.
9.
DaltonRJShinDC (eds) (2006) Citizens, Democracy and Markets Around the Pacific Rim. New York: Oxford University Press.
10.
DaltonRJWelzelC (eds) (2014) The Civic Culture Transformed. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
EspinalRHartlynJKellyJM (2006) Performance still matters: Explaining trust in government in the Dominican Republic. Comparative Political Studies39(2): 200–223.
13.
GurrTR (1970) Why Men Rebel. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
14.
GustafssonBALiSSicularT (2008) Inequality and Public Policy in China. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
15.
HetheringtonMJ (2005) Why Trust Matters. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
16.
HutchisonML (2011) Territorial threat and the decline of political trust in Africa: A multilevel analysis. Polity43(4): 432–461.
17.
HutchisonMLJohnsonK (2011) Capacity to trust? Institutional capacity, conflict, and political trust in Africa, 2000–2005. Journal of Peace Research48(6): 737–752.
18.
InglehartR (1997) Modernization and Postmodernization. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
19.
InglehartRWelzelC (2005) Modernization, Cultural Change, and Democracy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
20.
JenningsMK (1998) Political trust and the roots of devolution. In: BraithwaiteVLeviM (eds) Trust in Governance. New York: Russell Sage, pp. 218–244.
21.
JohnsonKHutchisonML (2012) Hybridity, political order, and legitimacy: Examples from Nigeria. Journal of Peacebuilding and Development7(2): 153–168.
22.
KanburRZhangX (1999) Which regional inequality? The evolution of rural-urban and inland-coastal inequality in China from 1983 to 1995. Journal of Comparative Economics27(4): 686–701.
23.
KennedyJJ (2009) Maintaining popular support for the Chinese communist party: The influence of education and the state-controlled media. Political Studies47(3): 517–536.
24.
KimJ (2010) Income inequality in China. The Journal of East Asian Affairs24(2): 29–50.
25.
KingGPanJRobertsME (2013) How censorship in China allows government criticism but silences collective expression. American Political Science Review107(2): 326–343.
26.
KnackSKeeferP (1997) Does social capital have an economic payoff? A cross-country investigation. Quarterly Journal of Economics65(4): 1251–1288.
KuglerJAbdollahianMJohnsonK. (2013) Relative Political Capacity Data Update. Data file. Cambridge, MA: Institute for Quantitative Social Science, Harvard University. Available at: https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/rpc (accessed 1 October 1 2016).
29.
KumlinS (2011) Claiming blame and giving credit? Unintended effects of how government and opposition frame the Europeanization of welfare. European Union Politics12(4): 575–595.
30.
LiL (2012) The magnitude and resilience of trust in the center: Evidence from interviews with petitioners in Beijing and a local survey in rural China. Modern China39(1): 3–36.
31.
MishlerWRoseR (2001) What are the origins of political trust? Testing institutional and cultural theories in post-communist societies. Comparative Political Studies34(1): 30–62.
32.
NewtonK (2001) Trust, social capital, civil society, and democracy. International Political Science Review22(2): 201–214.
33.
NewtonK (2007) Social and political trust. In: DaltonRJKlingermannHD (eds) Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior. New York: Oxford University Press, pp. 342–361.
34.
NewtonKZmerliS (2011) Three forms of trust and their association. European Political Science Review3(2): 169–200.
35.
NorrisP (ed.) (1999) Critical Citizens. New York: Oxford University Press.
36.
NorrisP (2000) The Virtuous Circle. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
37.
NorrisP (2011) Democratic Deficit. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
38.
RothsteinB (2011) The Quality of Government. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
UslanerEM (2002) The Moral Foundations of Trust. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
44.
UslanerEM (2011) Corruption, the inequality trap, and trust in government. In: HoogheMZmerliS (eds) Political Trust. Colchester: ECPR Press, pp. 141–162.
45.
Von HippelPT (2007) Regression with missing Ys: An improved strategy for analyzing multiply imputed data. Sociological Methodology37(1): 83–117.
46.
WangZ (2005) Before the emergence of critical citizens: Economic development and political trust in China. International Review of Sociology15(1): 155–171.
47.
WangZ (2007) Public support for democracy in China. Journal of Contemporary China16(53): 561–579.
48.
WarrenME (ed.) (1999) Democracy and Trust. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
49.
WedemanA (2005) Anticorruption campaigns and the intensification of corruption in China. Journal of Contemporary China14(42): 93–116.
50.
WelzelC (2006) Democratization as an emancipative process: The neglected role of mass motivations. European Journal of Political Research45(6): 871–896.
51.
WelzelC (2011) The Asian values thesis revisited: Evidence from the World Values Survey. Japanese Journal of Political Science13(1): 1–13.
52.
WelzelCInglehartRKlingemannHD (2003) The theory of human development: A cross-cultural analysis. European Journal of Political Research42(3): 341–380.
53.
WongTKWanPHsiaoHHM (2011) Bases of political trust in six Asian societies: Institutional and cultural explanations compared. International Political Science Review32(3): 263–281.
54.
XueJ (2013) Income inequality in China. Paper presented at the World Economics Association 2013 conference on “Inequalities in Asia”, 27 May–12 July. Available at: http://iiaconference2013.weaconferences.net/.
55.
YangDT (1999) Urban-biased policies and rising income inequality in China. The American Economic Review89(2): 306–310.
56.
YangQTangW (2010) Exploring the sources of institutional trust in China: Culture, mobilization, or performance?Asian Politics and Policy2(3): 415–336.
57.
ZmerliSNewtonK (2008) Social trust and attitudes towards democracy. Public Opinion Quarterly72(4): 706–724.
58.
ZmerliSVan der MeerT (eds) (2016) Handbook of Political Trust. London: Edward Elgar Publishing.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
