Understanding the end of the Holocene: A non-parametric statistical approach

Abstract

This is a statistical analysis of several time series to find the best evidence to determine when the Holocene ended. We utilize nonparametric statistical methods (which are model free) to determine structural breaks on whether the cumulative human impacts on land, air and oceans are indicative of the end of the Holocene Epoch. It is shown that the use of fossil fuels was the dominant factor in achieving high standards of living, and increased life expectancy in some regions of the globe. However, human prosperity also entailed destructive impacts on the Earth System, which led Paul Crutzen to suggest that a new epoch, the Anthropocene, had begun. But there were several possible dates for the beginning of the epoch. The statistical techniques used here support 1952 as the start of the epoch, which agrees with the conclusions of the Anthropocene Working Group.