Abstract
The Anthropocene, shaped by human forces, upends the concept of a stable, natural mortality baseline. We analyzed European monthly mortality data using the STL model to isolate annual cycles, then applied sparse PCA to identify key dimensions. For countries with data since 1960, Levene’s test confirmed a convergence of mortality cycles toward a European core pattern, stabilizing in the 21st century. Three axes emerged: a temporal shift (spring mortality reduced, likely by antibiotics or earlier influenza season), a hot-summer effect (lowest mortality delayed to early autumn), and a cold-winter effect (flattened cycles with extended infection seasons). Though climate impacts are evident in snapshots, epidemiological factors dominate long-term trends.
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