The carbon crater: Comparing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to historical planetary events

Abstract

Equilibrium climate sensitivity modeling relies heavily on paleoclimate records that were affected by meteorite impacts and volcanic explosions. This paper conducts a thought experiment by re-assembling known data and theories to shed new light on anthropogenic carbon waste. Anthropogenic activity, meteorite impacts and volcanic explosions all extract material from the Earth’s crust and deposit it in the atmosphere. This thought experiment tests if the mass of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions from 1851 to 2021 is comparable to the mass of atmospheric emissions from historical planetary events. Approximately 3.60 trillion tons of anthropogenic carbon dioxide equivalents are converted into volume and then transformed into the shape of a meteorite impact structure named the “Carbon Crater.” The 35 km crater (bounded by 34%–68% confidence intervals of 25–45 km) would rank 23rd on the list of known impact structures. The 2.6 km projectile required to create the Crater would be a 10 on the 1–10 Torino hazard scale described as “. . .capable of causing global climatic catastrophe. . .” The estimated re-occurrence interval for a projectile of this size is 5.3 million years. An interval of this time in Earth’s recent history predates homo sapiens. The Crater’s volume is exponentially larger than the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa and ranks as an 8 (“mega-colossal”) on the 0–8 Volcanic Explosivity Index. The thought experiment indicates that the Carbon Crater’s scale is comparable with large historical biospheric events. These results likely confer few direct implications for the study of the paleoclimate in climate modeling but might change conceptual understandings of atmospheric human waste. Additional empirical research is required to understand the potential impact of the Carbon Crater on conceptual change.