The biojetfuel industry: its rapid emergence,future development,and likely profile

Abstract

This article describes an industry in rapid transition. Using a model of both the upstream and downstream elements of the current aviation fuel industry, it compares the state of the industry in April 2010 with the state of the industry 2 years earlier. The rapid progress achieved in most elements of the model is described, and an assessment is made of the rate of change of production to 2050 and the key factors influencing this rate of change. In particular, the availability of sustainable feedstocks, the availability of funding in the short term, the role of governments, the pro-activeness of the airlines, and the responsiveness of the oil majors are all seen as key determinants of this new industry. Finally, the emerging structure of the industry is assessed, with particular emphasis on the role of the oil companies and the significance of the new opportunities that the industry structure offers to airlines for the first time. The ability of airlines to start to take much greater control of their own fuel costs, and reduce price volatility, is seen as a prime driver of the ultimate structure of the industry.